The far-left Los Angeles Times published a story Friday that asks if Hollywood can survive the rise of AI. The news is not good — at least not for all the Hollywood crybabies who believe they are so uniquely special that, unlike the rest of us, they should be inoculated from progress and automation.
What you are about to read below is the future. It has always been the future. Nothing stops the future. The future will arrive much sooner than you think:
“Dream Machine… debuted last year and points toward a new kind of moviemaking, one where anyone can make release-grade footage with a few words,” reports the Times. For example, you simply tell it that you want to see something like, “’a cowboy riding a velociraptor through Times Square,’ and it builds the scene from scratch. Feed it a still photo and it brings the frozen moment to life.”
It gets even scarier for the crybabies…
“Dream Machine’s latest tool, Modify Video, was launched in June. Instead of generating new footage, it redraws what’s already there.” All you have to do is load up a clip or photo. Then you “describe what you want changed, and the system reimagines the scene: A hoodie becomes a superhero cape, a sunny street turns snowy, a person transforms into a talking banana or a medieval knight.”
And now the most terrifying part…
“No green screen, no VFX team, no code. ‘Just ask,’ the company’s website says.”
Just ask.
As of now, with limited computer power, the AI-generated “clips max out around 10 seconds… But as Jain points out, ‘The average shot in a movie is only eight seconds.’”
The company’s ultimate goal is to create a “world of fully personalized entertainment, generated on demand… where two hours of video can be generated for every human every day.”
That will happen, and it will be the end of Hollywood as we know it. No more studios. No more VFX studios. No more actors. No more composers. No more massive crew of people handling sound, electric, food, lighting, and cameras. No more best boys. No more gaffers. No more distribution bottleneck.
Anyone with a vision will soon be able to bring that vision to life for the price of an Internet connection (which they already pay for).
If you don’t believe me, if you find that ridiculous, you’re wrong and the music industry proves it. This has already happened to a music business that has been reduced to a handful of superstars like Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. This is what the music industry used to look like — buried in superstars. Today’s industry is shattered into tiny pieces and so lacking in universally appealing musical acts, those in their late seventies and eighties are still mounting the most lucrative tours: Bruce Springsteen, the Rolling Stones, Rod Stewart, Billy Joel, Elton John, etc.
So, if what happened to the music industry is about to happen to Hollywood, what can Hollywood do to protect itself?
Writing.
Hollywood can only survive in a world where everyone can do what it does through great writing.
AI will never replace the human condition, the soul, that thing that no machine can duplicate, that spark of inspiration… Humans will always be necessary to craft great stories, so the good news for Hollywood is that writing a compelling and memorable story is really, really, really difficult. Very few people do it well, and those who do work harder than most are willing to work.
The truth is this…
For the cost of your monthly internet bill, you will soon be able to sit down and use all the tools Hollywood currently has at its disposal.
But.
If you can’t construct a fascinating plot populated with compelling characters and then drive it all home with relatable themes, you’ve got nothing. You got the same pile of shit Marvel and Star Wars produce today.
Hollywood has survived as long as it has for one reason: the cost of producing movies and television is so high it remains prohibitive. Once that advantage is ripped away by AI, Hollywood’s only option will be to corner the market on great writers who know how to tell a story.
Without that, AI will become Hollywood’s Napster.
John Nolte’ s first and last novel Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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