Manufacturing in New York roared back to life in October, marking a sharp turnaround from September’s slump and delivering a much stronger reading than expected, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
The headline index of general business conditions leapt to 10.7 from –8.7 in September, far surpassing economists’ expectations for a –0.9 reading. Any value above zero indicates expansion, and October’s figure was the third positive result in four months, suggesting factory activity is regaining momentum after a volatile summer.
Orders and shipments rebounded decisively, with the new orders index rising to 3.7 and shipments climbing to 14.4. Hiring improved, as the employment index increased to 6.2, while the average workweek ticked slightly lower.
Price pressures strengthened, with both input and selling prices accelerating. The prices paid index rose to 52.4, and prices received increased to 27.2, indicating firms were able to pass along some of their higher costs.
Delivery times lengthened and supply availability tightened, signs that demand is picking up and production pipelines are busier. Inventories were little changed, and capital spending plans remained soft.
Business confidence jumped, with the index for future general business conditions climbing to 30.3, its highest in several months. Manufacturers also expect higher orders, shipments, and employment in the months ahead, along with continued price increases.
Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9. The strong rebound adds to evidence that regional manufacturing is stabilizing and expanding again, even as firms continue to face higher costs and lingering supply constraints.
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