NEW YORK — The subtext of President Donald Trump’s recent reelection endorsement of Rep. Mike Lawler appeared clear enough: Stay, fight and keep your battleground New York seat red. Also, shelve your ambitions to become governor.
But Lawler isn’t interpreting the president’s Truth Social post as the decree others have.
The suburban Republican, after all, has doggedly built his brand as an independent and has long sought to be the first in a generation from his party to win statewide office in conventionally blue New York.
“Ultimately, my decision is going to be my decision,” Lawler told POLITICO in an interview the night after Trump’s endorsement. “It’s going to be based on whether or not I believe there’s a pathway in the general election.”
He said he has no interest “in a kamikaze mission” and will make his call by June. In the meantime, the 38-year-old second-term House member has plenty to tackle in Congress, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap, his calling-card cause. He’s calculating that a win on SALT could boost his viability statewide, and he’s also factoring in how potential cuts to Medicaid, federal immigration policy and the impact of Trump’s tariffs might impact his political future. But his stated priorities won’t be easy to secure. Republicans are locked in increasingly tense negotiations central to Trump’s “big, beautiful” spending bill.
Even if he does score key policy wins in the coming months, Lawler will still have a fight on his hands — regardless of which office he pursues next year.
Option A: Republicans want to topple Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, but without the messy GOP primary of 2022. Aside from Lawler, upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman are top gubernatorial contenders, and their allegiances to Trump would likely give one of them a primary edge over Lawler. Then, of course, there’s the general election, which would be an uphill battle in its own right, but would likely favor Lawler, the moderate, over Stefanik or Blakeman.
Option B is also tricky: If Lawler opts to seek a third term in purple Hudson Valley, he’ll do so as one of the country’s most vulnerable House Republicans. The stage for the midterms has been set with town halls packed by constituents outraged over Trump’s agenda and a burgeoning field of eager Democratic challengers sharpening their claws.
Trump — whose Truth Social posts can make or break political careers — looms over it all. The president is seeking more influence in his home state, where he built his real estate and TV businesses — and where Democrats successfully prosecuted him.
Several New York Republicans told POLITICO they see his glowing endorsement of Lawler’s House bid as clearing the path for Stefanik to run for governor.
Trump is closely aligned with the 40-year-old Stefanik, whose nomination for United Nations ambassador he abruptly yanked in March to protect Republicans’ slim House majority. Stefanik, a member of House GOP leadership, and Lawler briefly feuded over their preferred candidates for her House seat, but both their camps said they’ve since mended fences.
Did Stefanik ask Trump to weigh in this week on Lawler’s future? She declined to say.
Would Lawler run for governor without Trump’s blessing? He won’t say.
“He knows I’m considering it,” Lawler said. “Look, obviously, his voice matters, and his thoughts on a prospective campaign matter, but that’s a conversation I will have with him at some point.”
Lawler told POLITICO he’s spoken with White House officials but not the president himself since Trump’s Tuesday night Truth Social post.
In it, the president lauded Lawler as a “true America First Patriot” fighting to secure the border and grow the economy, proffering a “Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election.”
Lawler is widely viewed as a media-savvy workhorse and the best contender to keep his district out of Democratic hands — and he has toed the line with Trump. But he’s made exceptions. His willingness to buck his party has included standing up for Ukraine, opposing provisions that would defund Planned Parenthood and voting with Democrats against a GOP effort to block a measure allowing lawmakers with newborns to vote remotely.
Being tied too closely to the president would hurt him in either general election he’s eying.
Lawler said he’s grateful for the president’s endorsement, but as of Thursday night had yet to promote it on his own social media accounts. Democrats are spreading the word for him.
“Mike Lawler just received a presidential-level snub from Donald Trump,” Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Kevin Donohoe said in a statement. “Donald Trump, and no one else, will choose New York’s next Republican gubernatorial nominee — and it’s not going to be Mike Lawler.”
Republicans who know him said Lawler isn’t afraid to go his own way.
“The only person who will tell Michael whether or not to run for governor will be Michael,” said Dave Catalfamo, a GOP strategist and former top aide to New York’s last Republican governor, George Pataki. “I truly believe that what has made Mike so successful and what has made him attractive as a candidate is his independence.”
For his part, Lawler has continued to stress his bipartisan record — even though its mention has invited jeers at the hostile Hudson Valley town halls he holds in defiance of GOP guidance. Livid attendees have railed at him over proposed cuts to Medicaid and Trump’s deportation plans, with some saying his record doesn’t match his rhetoric and protesters calling him “MAGA Mike.” One constituent in her 60s was forcibly removed at his most recent forum. Lawler has said he opposes cuts to Medicaid for “eligible” recipients. Ever the political animal, he’s blasted the disruptors as activists and even fundraised on the acrimony by encouraging supporters to text “CRAZY” to a campaign number.
In Washington, with the stakes high over ironing out the Republican spending bill, Lawler’s moderate Democratic colleagues have shown an appreciation for him. This week, he and Long Island Rep. Laura Gillen reintroduced a bill to codify the right to access in vitro fertilization.
At their joint news conference, she suggested he bend Trump’s ear on the legislation as he has on SALT, saying, “He probably talks to the president more than I do and maybe he can put in a good word.”
Lawler replied good-naturedly, “You got it.”
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