Democrats are pushing ahead with last-ditch efforts to stymie Republican mid-decade redistricting in Missouri and Ohio, although they face unclear paths to blocking the potential gerrymanders amid the nationwide brawl ahead of 2026.
Party leaders in the two Midwestern states are mobilizing campaigns to prevent the Republican-drawn maps from going into effect ahead of next year’s midterms, but both efforts have seen only modest support from Washington for their efforts.
The relative lack of investment, compared with the millions of dollars directed toward Democrats seeking to redraw California’s maps, reflects the uncertainty clouding Democrats’ endeavor to protect a handful of Midwest congressional seats.
“We don’t have national staff, national consultants,” said Richard von Glahn, executive director for the People Not Politicians campaign ballot measure campaign in Missouri.
Democrats in Missouri are gathering signatures in an attempt to delay — and then outright repeal — the state’s new maps through a ballot measure. And in Ohio, they face even longer odds: With almost no viable mechanism to stop the redraw, Democrats are attempting to apply pressure on the state’s Republican-controlled redistricting commission.
Unlike the high-profile battle in California, support from national Democrats is comparatively sparse in the Midwest, although some groups have waded into the fight. The National Democratic Redistricting Committee’s legal arm is coordinating challenges to Republican redistricting measures around the country, including in Missouri. The Democratic National Committee is offering staff and additional organizing support in Missouri and Ohio. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee commissioned a poll showing nearly half of Missouri voters oppose the new maps.
But there has been no multimillion-dollar ad campaign featuring some of the party’s top national stars, as in California, and those on the ground say they don’t expect that level of support.
The referendum initiative in Missouri is being organized by People Not Politicians with support from state and national Democrats. The committee will need to collect over 100,000 valid signatures across multiple congressional districts before the state’s 90-day window expires on Dec. 11. If Democrats can collect enough valid signatures, the state would be temporarily unable to enact the new maps until voters can weigh in on the referendum.
The state’s Democrats are optimistic they can collect the signatures needed to put the referendum on the ballot, pointing to the level of engagement in response to the Republican maps and a well-trained organizing infrastructure that can carry over from the efforts to get minimum wage and abortion access referendums on to the ballot last year.
“I’m confident that that can be done. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy,” Missouri Democratic Party Chair Russ Carnahan said. “I think people understand just how much is at stake.”
The fate of Democrats’ push to reverse the new maps may ultimately come down to the courts.
The NDRC’s legal arm has sued to block the new Missouri maps, arguing a mid-decade redraw violates the state’s constitution, and the ballot measure committee is working with the Missouri ACLU preparing for a legal fight to ensure their referendum qualifies for the ballot.
Beyond the DNC’s organizing assistance and the DCCC-commissioned poll, national Democrats are not planning financial support for People Not Politicians’ signature gathering. House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ largest super PAC, has yet to contribute to People Not Politicians — a notable absence given the group’s $11 million total contributions to the committee pushing for redrawn maps in California.
People Not Politicians would accept additional help from national Democrats, von Glahn said, but insisted his committee will collect enough signatures to bring the state’s new maps to a referendum regardless of the level of Washington’s support.
“To the extent that there are certainly talented people and resources that can come and invest in Missouri, that’s always welcomed and appreciated, and I don’t want to come across that it’s not needed or wanted,” von Glahn said. “These campaigns can be difficult, they can be expensive, so we recognize that. But that said, this is a Missouri campaign led by Missouri leaders and driven by Missouri voters.”
Some Democrats in Congress have reached out directly to Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, whose district is being targeted in Missouri’s redistricting, to offer help, a person familiar with the outreach granted anonymity to speak freely told POLITICO. Some have raised money for Cleaver’s reelection campaign, the person said, but People Not Politicians wouldn’t have access to those funds.
By the time the referendum fight resolves itself, Cleaver’s campaign expects the national party infrastructure to support what could be a difficult reelection battle if the new maps are approved. “We’re going to need everybody going forward,” the person said.
In Ohio, where legislators are constitutionally required to draw new districts ahead of 2026, Democrats are boxed in by a process that favors Republicans.
Since the state’s Legislature failed to reach a bipartisan agreement on new maps, the Ohio’s Republican-controlled redistricting commission has until the end of the month to reach consensus. If they fail, the Republican-controlled Legislature can approve new maps with a simple majority in both chambers.
Ohio House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn attended a rally at the Missouri state Capitol in September as part of a broader effort among Midwestern Democrats to coordinate messaging and strategy against Republican redistricting efforts. Isaacsohn has visited Washington in recent weeks for meetings with national Democrats.
“We just want to make sure that we’re keeping folks here and across the country updated on, ‘Here’s what’s going to happen in Ohio,’” Isaachsohn said during a visit to Washington last month. “These in-state fights have national consequences for everyone in the country.”
A Republican-gerrymandered map would likely trigger lawsuits, and potentially a ballot measure campaign to repeal the maps, Isaacsohn said. But any legal challenge to the state’s maps would be heard by the Ohio Supreme Court, where Republicans hold a 6-1 majority after winning three judicial elections last November. A statewide redistricting reform ballot measure failed to pass last year.
The uncertain outcomes and lack of control over the legal and political processes overseeing map drawing in both states mean that Democrats in Washington can do only so much to support Democrats in the two states.
And despite the interstate coordination among Democrats in Midwestern states, Isaacsohn said he hasn’t spoken to Democrats in California to sync their redistricting messages.
“I haven’t been connected to California in any way, shape or form,” Isaachson said. “We are pretty laser-focused on Ohio.”
Read the full article here