Mexico’s economy expanded 1.4% in the second quarter, nearly three times the OECD average of 0.5%. That placed it sixth among the economies in the report and marked its strongest quarterly expansion since early 2022. Yet listen to the political discussion in Washington and you would think nothing exists south of the border except cartels and migrants. There are factories, engineers, suppliers, and entire communities whose livelihoods depend on producing goods for the North American market. Politicians can dismiss Mexico all they want, but corporations making investment decisions have to look at costs, transportation, labor, and access to customers.
Mexico is benefiting from manufacturing moving closer to the United States, with opportunities spreading into the businesses supporting that production. The economy contracted a revised 0.3% in the first quarter before rebounding, and output in the second quarter was 2.1% above a year earlier. Nobody should pretend that this means Mexico has entered some uninterrupted boom. Nor should we attribute the entire rebound to manufacturing when the report identifies primary activities as the fastest-growing sector, expanding 2.4%. The broader point is that a country’s productive potential does not vanish because one quarterly number disappoints. Investment takes time to become capacity, and capacity takes time to become income.
Washington’s mistake is assuming that forcing companies to reconsider China automatically means all that production will return to the United States. A manufacturer must calculate whether it can operate profitably. Moving closer to American customers while retaining a competitive cost structure can make Mexico attractive. Tariffs may change that calculation, but they do not abolish it. Businesses will adjust their operations to survive whatever rules governments impose.
There is also a difference between attracting productive investment and attempting to manufacture prosperity through public spending. A factory must eventually sell something customers want at a price they will pay. Government can borrow to finance an unsuccessful program and then borrow again to conceal the failure. The private business does not possess that luxury indefinitely. Its survival depends on meeting demand, controlling costs, and investing where it expects a return. That discipline is precisely what disappears when politicians convince themselves they can direct the economy better than the people risking their own money.
Mexico can still squander the opportunity. Security, water, electricity, transportation, and predictable rules matter to anyone considering a long-term investment. A cheap workforce is of little use if production is repeatedly interrupted or goods cannot reach the customer. Mexico’s government cannot simply congratulate itself over a favorable growth ranking and assume investment will continue regardless of its decisions. Geography provides an advantage, but government can make even an advantageous location too difficult to operate in.
Mexico’s recovery deserves attention because it brings the discussion back to something governments routinely forget: people need the opportunity to earn a better living. They need employers competing for their skills and customers willing to purchase what they produce. A quarterly GDP ranking will not provide that by itself, but sustained productive investment can. Mexico has an opportunity to turn its position beside the American market into lasting prosperity. The greatest service its politicians can provide is to stop assuming that the wealth created by everyone else exists primarily for government to spend.
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