National Rally leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella lead the field of prospective candidates to replace French President Emmanuel Macron when he is termed out in 2027.
A poll conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (Ifop) for Le Figaro, which surveyed the indicators of candidates voters “wish” to run in the upcoming presidential election and those whom they expect to be in the race.
At the top of the pack in terms of those they desire to see in the race were former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and her deputy, the 28-year-old president of the National Rally (RN), Jordan Bardella, at 42 and 43 per cent, respectively.
The two populist leaders were followed by continuity Macron-style candidates, former prime minister and current Mayor of Le Havre Édouard Philippe at 41 per cent, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau at 35 per cent, and ex-PM Gabriel Attal at 34.
Meanwhile, languishing towards the bottom end of the spectrum, just 14 per cent said they wished to see far-left LFI party leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the race. The 73-year-old three-time presidential candidate now trails behind other leading leftists, including Raphaël Glucksmann at 28 per cent and French Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel at 25 per cent.
Although the National Rally appears to be in pole position to finally take power in Paris, the poll also exposed growing uncertainty among the public about the fate of Marine Le Pen.
According to the survey, just over half of respondents (53 per cent) expect the longstanding frontrunner to be in the race, down from 74 per cent compared to just two months ago.
The significant drop in expectations comes after a court ruling barring Le Pen from standing for political office for five years over alleged misallocation of EU funds for her party. The populist politician has accused the judiciary of attempting to thwart the democratic will and has launched an appeal against the ruling.
While the decision on the appeal is expected to come by next summer, potentially providing enough time for her to enter the race, there appears to be a growing sense among the public that the National Rally will need to turn to their “plan B” of Jordan Bardella, whom 69 per cent now expect to run for the presidency.
Frédéric Dabi, general director of the Ifop opinion centre, said: “Something happened. The lines have moved very significantly: even the RN is becoming a source of uncertainty. Who will wear the colours of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s party?”
“There is a doubt that has set in among many French people about Marine Le Pen, even if this feeling is a little less shared in the RN. In any case, Jordan Bardella could appear over the months as the natural candidate of his camp,” he added.
Despite being one of the youngest prospective candidates, Bardella has established himself firmly among the top contenders for the Élysée Palace. A separate survey from Ifop last month found that he would beat out all other leading opponents in various first-round voting scenarios and would win in head-to-head second-round matchups in all races except against Mayor Philippe, which was projected as a fifty-fifty tie.
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