Is There A Chance We See Multiple NFL-MVPs This Season?

As the regular season comes down to the final weeks, the MVP trophy has quickly become a two-horse race.

Despite Saquon Barkley making a valiant effort for a non-quarterback to break the position’s dominance over the honor since 2013, he may still come up short, even if he surpasses Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.

Jared Goff’s ability to lead the best offense in the NFL, or Joe Burrow’s current pace that would end his season with 4,793 yards and 44 touchdowns will also likely trail the resumes of the two odds-on favorites for the award.

As of December 28, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is still Las Vegas’ pick for the best player in the NFL, with Lamar Jackson in second place.

But, with the difference between the two being -200 for Allen and +145 for Jackson, it is still anybody’s race. But what are the chances they could split the honors?

In Super Bowl era history, there have been two occasions where the MVP voters split their ballots between two players.

The first time was in 1997, when Brett Favre and Barry Sanders were co-MVPs. Then in 2003, Peyton Manning and Steve McNair also split the distinction.

So, by using Manning and McNair as a reference, what would Allen and Jackson have to do to become the second quarterback duo to win co-MVPs?

First, let’s flash back to 2003. In 14 games, Manning led the Colts to a 12-4 record behind 4,267 passing yards, 29 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 67%.

McNair on the other hand went 10-4 in two-less games, threw for just 3,215 yards, 24 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, and had a completion percentage of 62.5%. McNair also compiled 138 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground in 38 total rushing attempts.

While the discrepancy in games played does factor into these total accumulations, it is objective to say that Manning had a better year than McNair, which is proven by his lead 18-14 over the former Titans quarterback in Approximate Value.

However, it is clear that with journalists voting on the award, storylines will be a factor in the voting. And with the storylines of both quarterbacks putting together their best career seasons after being finalists for the prize in seasons prior, to set up what could have been a career featuring multiple MVP honors, the writers did not want to deprive one of the two from this resume addition.

With this logic, both Allen and Jackson have unique storylines and resumes that could be assisted by an MVP next to their name.

For Allen, he has led Buffalo in a season that lacked the expectations of the previous seasons. The Wyoming alum has done so by compiling the best season of his career, specifically in his ability to take care of the ball (posting a career-low 1.3% interception percentage compared to his career 2.3% mark) while still producing at his normal output.

Allen would be the vote for parody from the NFL writers, while also showcasing the new era of AFC quarterbacks that continue to lead the upper-tier teams in the NFL.

Jackson, on the other hand, would become a rare heir with a third MVP award. The Louisville alum would join Johnny Unitas, Jim Brown, Brett Favre, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers as the only other players with three or more MVPs. Jackson would also be the youngest player in this group to win his third MVP.

Including the head-to-head victory for the Ravens over the Bills earlier this year, Jackson also has the upper hand over Allen in every major statistical category excluding rushing touchdowns. However, the reason for Allen leading the odds is likely due to this embarrassment of riches seen in Baltimore, compared to Buffalo who entered the year losing their number one receiver.

But, with two competing storylines at stake after the final week of the NFL season, and the season statistics comparable for these two quarterbacks, it would certainly be possible for the third tie in NFL MVP history to occur in 2024.

Allen: 16 G, 3,549 Pass Yds, 63.8 Cmp%, 26 Pass TD, 6 Int, 97 Rush Att, 514 Rush Yds, 11 Rush TD, 101.2 Passer Rating

Jackson: 16 G, 3,955 Pass Yds, 67.9 Cmp%, 39 Pass TD, 4 Int, 130 Rush Att, 852 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TD, 121.6 Passer Rating

With one game left to play and a less-than-likely chance that either Allen or Jackson will play in their final regular-season game since there are no avenues to change their playoff path, these are likely the numbers that these two franchise quarterbacks will end the season with.

While the numbers are comparable, the storylines are both appealing, and both players pass the test of being a part of a Super Bowl threat, it may come down to a coin flip to end the season.

However, as we have seen in years past, there is alway the possibility that NFL writers will refuse to flip the coin and instead list both options as winners.