According to data from analytics firm Kpler, Russia remained India’s top supplier of oil in September, despite heavy pressure from the United States for India to scale back its imports and choke off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s funding for his war in Ukraine.
India is also repairing its relations with China by restoring direct flights between the two nations for the first time in five years.
Kpler’s data showed India imported 1.6 billion barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Russia in September, a decline of only six percent from the 1.7 million bpd India purchased in August. India is still getting about a third of its oil from Russia.
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Most of the business India shaved from Russia went to Iraq, whose imports to India increased from 730,000 to 904,000 bpd in September.
“Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners given their high GPW margins and discounts relative to alternatives,” noted Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia.
Ritolia added that Indian refiners “are gradually looking to expand their basket – not necessarily to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity of flows, and economic flexibility.”
Bloomberg News, on the other hand, noted that India’s oil trade with Russia has declined by about 16 percent year-on-year. This is not nearly enough to persuade President Donald Trump to lift the 25-percent punitive tariff he slapped on Indian goods in August to punish New Delhi for buying Russian oil, but it could indicate that India is willing to talk about further reductions as part of a comprehensive trade agreement. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has been talking up the possibility of buying more oil from the United States.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, from left, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at the Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin, China, Monday, September 1, 2025. (Indian Prime Minister’s Office via AP)
India could also be rattling Russia’s cage, by demonstrating that it can find alternative suppliers if Russia’s discounts for oil are not deep enough. India might also be preparing alternate supply lines in case Ukrainian airstrikes compromise Russia’s ability to deliver oil.
To date, Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes on Russian infrastructure have not made a significant difference to India’s supply. In fact, Bloomberg noted Russia’s seaborne exports of crude oil reached a 16-month high in September, hitting a total of 3.62 million bpd to all customers.
Putin on Thursday warned the U.S. to stop pressuring India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, asserting that the Indians “will never allow themselves to be humiliated by anyone.”
“I know Prime Minister Modi. He will not make any such decisions,” Putin said. He praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “balanced, wise, and nationally-oriented” leader.
Putin said India’s losses from “punitive U.S. tariffs” could be balanced by buying even more discounted oil from Russia, ostensibly granting India “prestige as a sovereign nation” for resisting Trump’s demands.
Putin slipped in a little threat for his beloved friends in India, warning that they could “incur certain losses” of up to $10 billion if Russia stops supplying them with discounted oil.
On Thursday, the Indian Foreign Ministry said direct airline flights will resume with Russia’s partner China for the first time since 2020, beginning with daily nonstop flights from Kolkata and Guangzhou on October 26.
Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the National Day Reception at the Great Hall of the People on the eve of the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, Tuesday, September 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
The ministry added that plans are in the works to add nonstop flights from New Delhi to Guangzhou soon after service from Kolkata resumes.
Flights between India and China were suspended five years ago after clashes along the Himalayan border between the two countries killed dozens of soldiers. Relations between the two countries began to thaw after deconfliction agreements were signed in October 2024. The souring of relations between India and the U.S. during President Trump’s second term also appears to have brought Beijing and New Delhi closer together.
Prime Minister Modi visited China for the first time in seven years in September, when he attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin. Modi met with Putin and Chinese dictator Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit.
The Indian embassy to China confirmed on Thursday that the resumption of direct flights was part of New Delhi’s “approach towards gradual normalization of relations between India and China.”
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