In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, it’s all eyes on Elon

STEVENS POINT, WISCONSIN — The race for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court could come down to how voters feel about Elon Musk.

On Saturday afternoon, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford was holding a campaign event at a local Democratic Party office. Her conservative opponent, Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Brad Schimel, was speaking on a live stream on X with its owner – the richest person in the world and now a newly influential federal policymaker. And that Saturday, Musk was impressing upon his sizable worldwide audience the high stakes of the judicial race in Wisconsin.

“This election is going to affect everyone in the United States,” said Musk, who was appearing with one of the state’s senators, the Republican Ron Johnson. “So reach out to your friends and family in Wisconsin. Educate them as to the importance of this race, which might not seem important, but it’s actually really important — and it could decide the fate of this country.”

Crawford’s campaign has increasingly focused on Musk, castigating him in a press release Tuesday as “corrupt and slimy.” The liberal candidate began her remarks on Saturday by highlighting the split-screen moment that afternoon.

“I’m here talking to voters in beautiful Portage County, Wisconsin. Guess who Brad Schimel is talking to right now? Elon Musk,” Crawford said to boos and murmurs from the assembled crowd. Schimel, Crawford charged, “is willing to sell our state off to the highest bidder.”

Although technically nonpartisan, judicial elections in Wisconsin have become increasingly political and seen record amounts of outside spending as the U.S. Supreme Court has delegated hot-button issues, like abortion, to the states. But never before has a figure with unlimited funds and such proximity to the White House as Musk put so much time and resources into shaping a state court.

Musk, the world’s richest person and a close ally of President Donald Trump, is playing an outsize role in the April 1 contest for a 10-year term that will determine the ideological bent of this swing state’s highest court. As Musk spearheads drastic federal job and spending cuts through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — and assails the federal judges he believes are standing in his way — he’s putting his personal wealth toward reshaping the balance of power in the states, starting in Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court is poised to rule on the constitutionality of a 19th-century abortion ban that has become a major issue in the race. (Abortion is accessible in the state for now following a 2023 ruling from a lower court.) The court is also expected to hear cases over labor bargaining rights for public sector employees and the state’s congressional district maps.

The issues themselves — and the checks provided by state and lower federal courts — are why Musk and others have devoted so much time and resources to Wisconsin in the first place.

“I’m speaking personally here — in my view this is about preserving democracy in America, and not having ridiculous districts drawn that effectively disenfranchise voters in Wisconsin,” Musk said Saturday. “That’s my number one issue. But there’s also a separate concern regarding judicial activism.”

Two Musk-backed groups, Building America’s Future and America PAC, have spent over $17.4  million on ads and paid door-knockers — as they did in the 2024 presidential election in support of Trump — with the goal of electing Schimel. A Schimel win would flip the balance of the court from liberal to conservative.

Wealthy individuals on both sides of the aisle have spent large sums in state court races—groups linked to  Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and financier George Soros have spent money in the race supporting the state Democratic Party and Crawford.  But Musk’s unlimited outside spending in support of Schimel has contributed to the race already breaking a new record for the most expensive judicial race in the country. His groups are offering voters $100 to sign a petition against “activist judges,” reprising a tactic used in the 2024 election.

“It’s really disappointing to see that, and it is really making people mad,” Crawford told The 19th. “And so I think what we’re seeing a lot of at these appearances is a reaction to people not wanting to have some outsider billionaire like that come in and try to buy a seat on the Supreme Court.”

Both parties see the Wisconsin race as setting up the stakes and the political battlefield for the upcoming policy fights over Trump’s agenda in Washington — which could bring major cuts to social safety net programs like Medicaid that disproportionately impact women and families — and for the 2026 midterm elections.

“The whole world is now watching this race, because this is the first test for whether Elon Musk’s almost unlimited fortune can just buy our democracy and break it,” Ben Wikler, the Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, said at a canvass launch Saturday in Madison.

Musk has become more of a Democratic bogeyman and foil in the race than Schimel or even Trump, who narrowly won Wisconsin and the national popular vote in November and enjoys high approval ratings among Republicans in the state.

“There’s a bad guy in this election, and it’s not Brad Schimel. It’s someone else who’s trying to buy this election,” Portage County Circuit Court Judge Patricia Baker said in introducing Crawford at the Saturday event. “We need to get that guy out of our elections and out of our politics, because we will never have three branches of government again if we don’t take care of this.”

Like in past judicial elections, the candidates’ records on crime and sentencing, abortion and the redrawing of legislative district lines are major themes in the race and topics of messaging and advertising. But Musk’s influence in the race itself is now overshadowing those issues to become the predominant issue in Democrats’ messaging and in advertising from Crawford and her allies.

“If this has shifted in the last week to a full-blown ‘Trump is for Schimel, Crawford is against Elon,’ then we really are at a place that Wisconsin judicial elections have never been,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law poll.

“They’ve had party endorsements for the candidates. They’ve had parties throwing tons of money behind the candidates, and they’ve had outside billionaires on both sides in the past, but that has never been the central issue,” he added.

Trump has a small net negative job approval rating, 48-51 percent, while Musk’s favorability is 12 points underwater among Wisconsin voters, according to the latest statewide Marquette Law Poll. Opinions on DOGE were divided, with 47 percent saying DOGE is carrying out Trump’s agenda and 53 percent saying it’s disrupting federal programs.

“He is an absolute villain to Democrats, pretty much a villain to independents and has strong support from Republicans, though not quite as strong as Trump does,” Franklin said. “The billionaire buying your election is a usual political foil, and I think Musk is a lot more visible foil than George Soros is, even though Soros is mentioned all the time. So I do think he’s the liability in that sense.”

Political observers believe the margin of victory will be smaller than liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s 11-point win over conservative Dan Kelly in April 2023, a race dominated by voters’ anger at the loss of federal abortion rights and lopsided legislative maps.

“There are no real landslides here,” said Jeremy Jansen, the Wisconsin-based political director for the Democratic State Legislative Campaign Committee, state Democrats’ campaign arm. “It’s expected that this race is going to be really competitive.”

There has been little public polling of the race. A polling memo released last Thursday from Building America’s Future, one of the Musk-backed groups, showed Schimel making up a double-digit deficit now to trail Crawford by five points, 48 to 43 percent. The memo warned that Schimel was struggling to consolidate and turn out Trump’s base of support in the state, saying that “closing the enthusiasm gap with the base will be critical” for Schimel’s chances.

Despite Musk’s underwater favorability ratings and mixed views on DOGE in the state, Schimel and his allies are eagerly embracing Musk’s support.

“Your time is so valuable, and the things you’re involved in, the great things you’re accomplishing — I am so humbled that you took some time to help out with this this afternoon,” Schimel told Musk on the live stream.

“This is entirely winnable, and if we do win it again, we have to thank Elon for all the support he’s given in this race,” Johnson added.

The implications of the race for both parties reach far beyond Wisconsin. Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans are hoping the Badger State can show that Musk’s money can overcome the advantages Democrats have enjoyed in off-cycle, lower-turnout elections that draw the most engaged and reliable voters who now skew liberal. Democrats, contending with anger, frustration and poor approval ratings from their own party base, see the Wisconsin contest as a fight over Musk’s influence that they have a shot at winning.

“We’re going to show people that Democrats are not demoralized, they’re furious — the polling numbers that everyone’s throwing around are about Democrats wanting Democrats to fight harder, not to retreat in this moment,” Wikler said Saturday.

Signs of Democratic ire over Trump and Musk’s policies were visible in Portage County, a once reliable Democratic stronghold that has become competitive in recent elections — former Vice President Kamala Harris won it by 1.2 points in 2024 while narrowly losing the state overall.

“I think we have people who are really energized, who are motivated by anger and fear,” Crawford told The 19th. “They don’t like what they see happening in the state of Wisconsin coming out of Washington, D.C., a lot of services being cut off and people being fired — people who perform really essential roles, like [Veterans Affairs] healthcare providers and air traffic controllers. And so they’re wanting to fight back, and they’re channeling a lot of their energy into this race.”

Robin Baum, an attendee at Crawford’s meet-and-greet, said he had been depressed about Trump’s return to power and had removed himself from engaging in politics since the November election, even entertaining leaving the country, but was “back in the fight” to engage in the state Supreme Court election. He was “hopeful,” he said, about the power of Wisconsin’s voters to send a message.

Earlier Saturday morning, a group of some 30-odd protesters gathered on the sidewalk outside the post office in downtown Stevens Point in sub-30-degree temperatures for a peaceful demonstration of the Trump and Musk-led cuts to the federal government and workforce.

Protesters held a mix of homemade signs with anti-Trump and anti-Musk messages while waving American and Ukrainian flags. Others held signs in support of Crawford and those evoking patriotic symbols and figures like the Statue of Liberty and George Washington.

Multiple attendees told The 19th the protests, now a weekly affair, were entirely organic, without a clear leader or organizer, and responses were overwhelmingly positive. In the wake of the election, many Democrats wondered, “What can I do?” said Jim Radford, a frequent attendee of the protests, which he said started four weeks ago with eight people.

The post office, a previous venue for protests for the civil rights movement and against the Iraq War, is now a symbol of the cuts to the federal government that Trump and Musk are leading.

During the hour-long demonstration, many cars passing down Main Street honked in support. Only a few drivers showed signs of disapproval, like flipping their middle fingers.

“It’s a total grassroots protest — I’ve been coming for several weeks and this is the biggest yet,” said one attendee, Karlene Ferrante. Ferrante was hopeful about Crawford’s chances in the Supreme Court race, citing Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s reelection in November.

“I’ve given her more money than I’ve given anyone,” she said of Crawford.

Mary Ellen Mitchell, 71, said she’d come out to protest the many “terrible things” happening as a result of the Trump administration. Mitchell, holding a sign that said, “Democracy is not a spectator sport,” said she’d voted in every election since she turned 18 and hoped her fellow citizens would come up and elect Crawford. Schimel, she said, “is being bought and paid for by Elon Musk.”

“I care about my Republican neighbors,” she said, “I want the best for them like I do for myself.”

Just as the policies from Washington are influencing the race in Wisconsin, Democrats argue a win for them in the state could throw a wrench in Trump, Musk and congressional Republicans’ plans to cut the social safety net programs like Medicaid in order to fund a large spending and tax cut package at the top of Trump’s wish list.

Jon Lovett, a former Obama speechwriter and co-host of the popular liberal podcast “Pod Save America,” argued at the Saturday canvass launch that from a “purely cynical” standpoint, many frontline Republican members are still undecided on whether to proceed with large cuts to Medicaid and other benefit programs impacting tens of millions of Americans.

“They truly don’t know,” he said. “They are genuinely undecided. And what happens here really will impact how people perceive whether or not this kind of money can still work in politics.”

Many congressional Republicans, Wikler said, believe that Musk’s money is like a “force field” that can protect them from primary challenges and from voter backlash for touching popular programs like Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security — long referred to as the “third rail” of American politics — that Musk has taken aim at. “When we win this race, we can show that that force field is a soap bubble,” he said.

“We can change the whole trajectory, the whole political arc of this moment, because we can show Democrats that you can fight back and you can win,” Wikler argued. “And we can show Republicans that if they keep following Musk off this cliff, that their political careers are heading for total catastrophe.”

The post In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, it’s all eyes on Elon appeared first on The 19th.

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