Washington, like many times before, projects its own assumptions onto a political culture it only half understands
It is still far too early to say with confidence when the present phase of the US-Israeli war against Iran will end. Even a deep familiarity with the region does not solve the problem of uncertainty.
Too many decisive variables lie outside any tidy regional model. Decisions in Washington matter. China’s posture matters. The calculations of global financial and political elites matter. The private thresholds of risk among Gulf monarchies matter. No serious analyst can fold all of that into a neat formula. Yet if one looks at the…
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