Topline
Federal officials and weather experts who have warned of the “catastrophic” threat of Hurricane Milton have repeatedly told those in the path of the hurricane to not doubt the dangers of the storm even as it’s categorical definition has dropped before making landfall, the latest weather event that has some researchers cautioning against using wind speed as the sole determinant of storm severity.
Oscar Garcia, right, with his family stands outside his house after getting hit by a reported … [+]
AFP via Getty ImagesKey Facts
Milton, which was one deemed a Category 5 hurricane before dropping to a 4 and then a 3 Wednesday afternoon, is headed for Florida’s west coast and has prompted evacuation orders for millions, the closure of several airports and dire warnings from officials, with Tampa Bay Mayor Jane Castor telling those who plan to stay in the path: “You are going to die.”
The latest updates from the National Hurricane Center say Milton has sustained winds of 125 mph as it approaches the coast, making it a Category 3 storm, but the federal government has warned Milton will remain “extremely dangerous” no matter where it falls on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday afternoon told CNN even if the category of the storm changed, “that is not actually a downgrade in terms of the danger and the dangerous potential of it,” urging Floridians to not rely on the designation “to their detriment.”
The National Weather Service warned Milton could be “the most powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years” despite predictions it would drop in category before hitting land, citing storm surge estimates that water could rise 10 to 13 feet above sea level as one reason why.
The sheer size of Hurricane Milton—tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles from the center of the storm—its rapid intensification, the formation of tornadoes and the potential for storm surge to bring “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding have all been cited as reasons to be wary of the storm despite its category designation, which is determined only by its sustained maximum wind speed.
Hurricane Milton is the latest storm to call into question the practice of using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to rate a hurricane based on sustained wind speed without considering other dangerous factors that amplify the severity of a storm.
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Crucial Quote
“We’ve got a lot of tough, strong people in Florida who have been through a lot of hurricanes, tornadoes but this is not like anything they’ve dealt with before,” Harris said. “We expect that this is going to be catastrophic and deadly.”
Key Background
Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida overnight Wednesday into Thursday and will maintain its hurricane strength as it moves over land. In addition to the strong and far-reaching winds, Milton has been called out by meteorologists as being particularly dangerous and rare for a number of reasons. The storm is moving from west to east—the opposite of most hurricanes, which travel from east to west with the trade winds—and could therefore become the only hurricane to directly hit Tampa Bay in almost a century. Most storms swipe along the coast of Florida as opposed to make the direct hit Milton is expected to deliver, CNN reported. Another major threat from Milton is the storm surge, or abnormal rise of seawater level caused by a storm. The National Hurricane Center has warned the combination of storm surge and the tide will cause areas that are normally dry near the coast to be flooded, with a surge of 8 to 12 feet expected in the Tampa Bay area. Nine tornado watches across southern Florida are in effect until Wednesday evening.
Tangent
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which divides hurricanes into five categories based on their sustained wind speeds, has been used to warn the public about hurricanes since the early 1970s. The scale has been criticized for not accounting for rainfall, storm surge, range of impact and other factors when defining a hurricane’s strength. A pair of researchers from Florida and Georgia in 2021 warned that people overly rely on the Saffir-Simpson scale to determine risk even when they’re warned of risks other than wind. Other scientists have said the open-endedness of the scale—the fifth category encompasses all storms with sustained wind speeds over 157 mph—will be inadequate moving forward as climate change continues to strengthen storms. The National Hurricane Center in February said it has no plans to add a Category 6 to its hurricane scale and said it aims to give people a wider view of a storm’s threat level by “giving specific information about each of the hazards,” rather than relying on just wind speed. Alternatives for measuring hurricane strength have been proposed over the years, including the 50-point Hurricane Severity Index and the Hurricane Hazard Index, which uses fluid dynamics to rate hurricane strength.
Further Reading
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