How The Issue With NFL Kickers Is Similar To MLB Pitchers

Entering the 2024 NFL season, the debate about kickers was that they were becoming “too good”, as if that were possible.

But, in 2015, the NFL started adjusting to the exponential abilities of the position group, first by moving the extra point back by two yards.

Leading up to that decision, it became more and more of a rarity for extra points to be missed. In 2005 for example, NFL kickers had a 98.7% extra point percentage. Ten years later before the adjustment was made, kickers improved to 99.3%.

This move dropped the percentage to 94.2% in the first year of operation, which coincided with the increased rate of two-point attempts.

But, if we zoom out on the abilities of NFL kickers in the past decade, the conversation is not regarding their ability to add a single point to the scoreboard or for simpler attempts when their team is in the red zone.

Instead, the strength of certain teams with a top-tier kicker on their roster became the ability to reliably have a chance of three points as soon as they crossed the midfield stripe.

From 2005 to 2014, when extra points were automatic and the league overall kicked at an 84% clip, there were 1,182 field goals of over 50 yards attempted. That’s about 131 attempts per season league-wide. The league made just over half of those kicks, at 58.2%.

Only five kickers—Sebastian Janikowski, Josh Brown, Mason Crosby, Phil Sawson, and Jason Hanson—personally attempted 40 or more of these long-range attempts. All five of these kickers had careers over a decade, thus earning the trust to take these risky attempts.

From 2015 to 2019, these attempts became more common and grew in success rate, as per season 190 50+ yard attempts were attempted to a 62.8% clip.

Since then, here are those numbers from 50+ yards over the last five seasons.

2020: 106 for 168 (63.1%)

2021: 120 for 181 (66.3%)

2022: 154 for 224 (68.8%)

2023: 158 for 230 (68.7%)2024: 195 for 279 (69.9%)

*Note: 2020 was the first year of the 18-week NFL season.

With increasing attempts in each of the last five seasons, the percentage from deep has continued to rise, with a noticeable swing in this current season.

Ten kickers this year attempted ten or more attempts from deep, and all but one were above league average, Justin Tucker.

Tucker, the current all-time leader in field goal percentage, just finished the worst season in his 13-year career, with a 73.3% mark on the year. All of his struggles came from distance (excluding his two extra point attempt misses), as he was 11 for 19 in total on 40+ yard field goals.

Outside of these struggles from distance, which are not aided by the fact that he plays in the NFL North, he was perfect on the field goals NFL kickers are expected to make.

When we look at kickers outside of one of the greatest of all-time, this consistency from close is not universal amongst the league. This is why league-wide we have seen the largest single-season drop in overall field goal percentage since 2014.

While the initial rationale, for this reason, would be the assumption that increased attempts from distance would cause this, the personnel being recruited for the position also seeks kicking distance before consistency and accuracy.

Whenever you watch a Dallas Cowboys game, the ability of Brandon Aubrey to kick a 70+ yard field goal is always discussed, as he has yet to leave a field goal attempt short in his young career.

Now, players like Evan McPherson and Jake Moody were drafted at a premium in earlier rounds as opposed to the usual sixth and seventh-round selections of years past.

It is similar to the scouting style we see from every Major League Baseball team, which prioritizes velocity and movement over accuracy and consistency. In the minds of a competent pitching staff, every pitcher can learn accuracy, but you cannot teach velocity.

While you cannot teach distance either, it is clear that the desire for every team would be the abilities of Stephen Gostkowski, who was the reliable force at the end of so many games for the Patriots dynasty. Or Adam Vinatieri, who was as much of a staple in Indianapolis as Peyton Manning.

While scoring from midfield as opposed to punting is a luxury over an NFL season, so many games are won and lost by a kicker’s ability to win it in the fourth quarter.

So, as we enter the 2024-25 NFL playoffs, we will see what teams are impacted by their desire for depth instead of consistency, as several fanbases will be biting their fingernails when the kicking units jog to the field.