Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan since her entrance into the race, according to polls that show razor-thin races in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win for either candidate in November.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, … [+]
Key Facts
National poll trackers show Harris ahead in Michigan, a crucial state given its 15 electoral votes: She’s up 1.4 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, she’s ahead 0.5 points in Real Clear Politics’ polling average and she’s leading by 1.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Harris’ clearest path to victory runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall” states—if she wins all three, which account for 44 electoral votes, plus all of the other non-swing states won by Biden in 2020, she’ll reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election.
Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020, after Hillary Clinton lost to Trump there in 2016 by less than a point, making her the first Democrat to lose to a Republican presidential candidate in Michigan since 1988.
The Harris campaign is largely tying its success to improved numbers among Black and white working-class voters in Michigan—home to the largest Black-majority city in the U.S., Detroit, and a significant population of union voters who typically back Democratic presidential candidates.
Data show Harris has made inroads among white voters without college degrees—a key demographic for Trump—since Biden’s exit, according to a New York Times/Siena poll from last month that shows the group backs Trump over Harris 52% to 41% in Michigan, a shift in Democrats’ favor since May, when Trump led Biden 49%-27%.
Support for Democrats among Black voters—who typically vote for the party by large margins—has eroded somewhat since 2020, though Harris appears to have won back some support in Michigan, according to Times/Siena polling that showed 75% of Black voters would vote for her in the group’s September survey, compared to 49% who said the same of Biden in May.
Trump, meanwhile, has attacked the Biden-Harris administration’s policies to promote a transition to electric vehicles in Michigan, home to the “Big Three” auto manufacturers, alleging they are a threat to the auto industry and its scores of Michigan-based employees (Trump has also often repeated his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen in Michigan).
Why Do Union Endorsements Matter In Michigan?
Michigan households with a union member have been more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate than union households nationwide in the last three presidential elections, Reuters reported, citing the polling firm Edison Research. The United Auto Workers’ endorsement of Harris was considered a boon to her candidacy in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters’ decisions not to endorse anyone, after backing Biden in 2020 and historically supporting Democrats, were widely seen as blows to Harris.
Will Arab-American Voters Break With Kamala Harris In Michigan?
Michigan has a sizeable Arab-American population, many of whom have been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s continued support for Israel in its war in Gaza. Recent polling for the Arab American Institute by John Zogby Strategies appears to show the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis has severely dented his support among the demographic, with those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats split at 38%, compared to 40% who identified as Democrats and 32% who identified as Republicans in 2020. The pro-Palestinian group “Uncommitted”—which encouraged primary voters not to back Biden in Michigan and other key states—has not endorsed Harris, though it said this week it views Trump as worse than Harris.
Big Number
2.6 points. That’s Harris’ lead in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. She leads by two points in Real Clear Politics’ polling average.
Tangent
Democrats control all three branches of state government in Michigan for the first time since the 1980s.
Key Background
Trump had been leading Biden in Michigan in polls by a slim margin prior to Biden dropping out of the race. The state’s popular Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, co-chair of both Biden’s and Harris’ campaigns, is seen as a key asset in helping Harris repeat Whitmer’s own success in the state, where she has won two elections by double-digits, increasing her margins in the 2022 election while campaigning on abortion rights in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s reversal. Abortion, while still a high-ranking priority for voters, has lost some of its weight in electoral politics since 2022, however, as other issues, including ongoing inflation and the Israel-Hamas war, are also driving voting decisions.
Is Trump Or Harris Ahead In The Seven Swing States?
Harris leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Trump is up in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, according to FiveThirtyEight’s swing state polling averages.
Contra
A win for Harris across the “blue wall” is contingent on her winning Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and its single electoral vote. The district is an outlier in the state as it typically votes for a Democrat for president. Nebraska is just one of two states that uses a piecemeal approach to allocating electoral votes instead of a winner-takes-all approach. A final-hour GOP-backed effort to change the rule recently failed to gain the traction needed to succeed in the state legislature.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leads By 1 Point In 7 Battlegrounds In Latest Survey (Forbes)
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