Topline

Most polls taken in the past month show President Donald Trump’s approval rating is in the red, but slightly higher than it was during this point in his first White House tenure—though one recent survey suggests a leak of highly sensitive military plans to a journalist could hurt the Trump administration’s standing in polls.

Timeline

March 25Net +2 approval rating: Trump’s net approval rating ticked up two points in an Economist/YouGov survey conducted March 22-25, compared to the group’s previous poll taken earlier this month, with 48% of 1,600 U.S. adults surveyed saying they approve of the president’s job performance, compared to 46% who disapprove (the poll has a three-point margin of error).

Trump’s approval rating improved despite the vast majority (74%) of 5,976 U.S. adults polled by YouGov online Tuesday in a separate survey calling the leak of military plans to Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem, including 60% of Republicans (the poll has a two-point margin of error).

March 25-6: More than half, 51%, of 1,030 U.S. adults surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos from March 21-23 (margin of error 3) disapprove of Trump’s job performance, compared to 45% who approve .

The poll also asked respondents whether presidents should obey federal court rulings amid the administration’s battle with a federal judge who suspects it may have defied his order to halt deportations of migrants to El Salvador carried out under a special wartime authority known as the Alien Enemies Act: 82% of respondents said the president should obey court orders, including majorities of both Republicans and Democrats.

The vast majority of Republicans said the deportations were an exception, however, with 76% agreeing with the statement “the Trump Administration should continue to deport people they view as a risk despite the court order,” compared to 8% of Democrats who agreed with the statement.

March 24-4: Morning Consult recorded a record high disapproval rating of 51% for Trump and a record-low approval rating of 47% for his second term in its March 21-23 survey of 2,210 registered voters (margin of error 2), a two-point net decline for Trump since the group’s previous weekly poll.

In another first for Trump, more voters (47%) disapprove of his handling of the economy than they approve (46%), the poll found.

March 19-4: A March 7-11 NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters found 47% approve of Trump and 51% disapprove (margin of error 3.1).

More registered voters (43%) believe the president and the executive branch have too much power versus the share who said the same about the Supreme Court and the judicial branch (28%), findings that come as the Trump administration is testing the judiciary’s authority in multiple cases, including over his mass firings of federal workers and use of an obscure wartime authority to deport people.

The majority of voters, 51%, have a somewhat or very negative view of top Trump advisor Elon Musk, according to the findings, while 39% have a somewhat or very positive view.

March 17-2: For the first time in Trump’s second term, he had a net negative approval rating in Morning Consult’s weekly poll of 2,210 registered voters taken March 14-16 (margin of error 2), with 50% saying they disapprove and 48% saying they approve.

March 13-8: Trump’s approval rating has stayed at 44% in the past four Reuters/Ipsos polls, including the latest online survey of 1,422 U.S. adults taken March 11-12 (margin of error 3), with 52% saying they disapprove of his job performance.

The poll also found 56% of respondents, including 27% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats, said Trump is too closely aligned with Russia—as Trump has openly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and briefly paused aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia as the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire agreement (the poll was taken before Trump’s March 18 call with Putin).

March 13 -11: A March 6-10 Quinnipiac University poll of 1,198 registered voters (margin of error 2.8) found Trump’s approval rating has declined since its previous poll released Feb. 19, when his approval rating was a net negative 4—the latest survey found 53% disapprove of the way he’s handling the job and 42% approve.

The majority of voters (54%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 41% approve and 5% offered no opinion.

March 12Even: The same share of voters, 47%, either approve or disapprove of Trump’s job performance, according to a March 9-11 Economist/YouGov survey of 1,699 U.S. adults (margin of error 3).

March 11+2: An Emerson College survey taken March 8-10 of 1,000 registered voters (margin of error 3) found Trump’s disapproval rating increased two points, while his approval rating decreased one point, from the group’s previous poll taken a week prior, but more voters (47%) still said they approve of his job performance than disapprove (45%).

Big Number

46%. That’s Trump’s average approval rating so far during his second term, higher than his 41% average approval rating throughout the duration of his first term, according to Gallup.

What Was Trump’s Approval Rating At This Point During His First Term?

39% as of March 20, 2017, according to Gallup’s weekly average of its daily tracking polls.

What Was Biden’s Approval Rating At This Point In His Term?

54%, according to Gallup’s average for the first two weeks of March 2021.

Key Background

The leak of U.S. military plans for attacking the Houthis in Yemen to Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg is widely considered to be the first major blunder of Trump’s second term, which has been notably smoother from a personnel and operational perspective than his first. Revelations that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz added Goldberg to a Signal text thread in which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth laid out a timeline for the attacks have consumed the news cycle since they were made public on March 24, drawing bipartisan criticism. Trump’s tariff war with U.S. trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, and his efforts to slash the federal workforce with the help of the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency, have largely consumed his first two months in office. Other major moments include his explosive Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy in which he and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian president in front of the media and more recently, his use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport migrants. The latter, along with the mass firings that have taken place across dozens of government agencies, have prompted numerous legal battles that have led to accusations the Trump administration has defied court orders, sparking debate about the judiciary’s authority over the executive branch.

Further Reading

Appeals Court Strikes Down Trump Request To Fire Workers: Here’s Where Trump And Musk Are Winning—And Losing—In Court (Forbes)

Here’s Where Trump’s Government Layoffs Are Targeted—As Pentagon Reportedly Plans 60,000 Job Cuts (Forbes)

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