The U.S. economy may need fewer than 10,000 new jobs per month to maintain a stable unemployment rate this year, Federal Reserve researchers said in a paper published Wednesday—a threshold so low it would force a fundamental rethinking of how Wall Street, the press, and policymakers evaluate the monthly employment report.

The analysis, by Fed economists Seth Murray and Ivan Vidangos, finds that the “breakeven pace” of job creation—the number of positions the economy must add each month to hold the unemployment rate steady—has plunged to nearly zero, reflecting a sharp pullback in net immigration and the continued retirement of baby boomers…

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