The British public now sees Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party as the main opposition to the Labour government, as the neo-liberal ‘Conservatives’ continue to bleed support since their disastrous defeats in last year’s general elections and the local England votes this month.
A representative survey of British voters between 18 and 75 years old conducted by Ipsos has found that while the Tories remain the de jure opposition in the House of Commons, more voters see Reform as the de facto opposition party to the government.
The poll found that 37 per cent see the Farage-led party as the main opposition party and the most likely to lead the next government if Labour falls at the next general election. This was compared to the Kemi Badenoch-led Conservative Party at 33 per cent.
The growing confidence that Reform will become the next government comes in the wake of the party securing a landslide victory in the local England council elections on May 1st. Reform picked up 678 council seats, while the Conservatives lost 676 and the Labour Party lost 187.
The Ipsos survey also found that 39 per cent of the public viewed Nigel Farage as the most likely candidate to become the next prime minister, compared to just 25 per cent for Tory leader Badenoch. Ipsos noted that this was a “significant shift since December 2024.”
Meanwhile, the poll found that half of the country believes that Prime Minister Starmer is performing badly in his role, an increase of five points since March. Conversely, just 24 per cent said that they thought Starmer is performing well in his office, and 57 per cent said that they are disappointed with the Labour government, including 36 per cent of voters who backed the party in the 2024 general election.
Starmer’s slumping ratings have led voters to question whether he will remain in office until the next election, with 43 per cent predicting a leadership change before 2029. While an equal number believe he will stay in power, this represented a nine point drop since November.
There is also a lack of confidence in Badenoch’s future as leader of the Conservatives, with 49 per cent expecting her to be replaced before the next election, an increase from 38 per cent in November.
On the other hand, the survey found that Reform is the most confident party in terms of delivering a positive change for Britain, with 37 per cent, compared to 32 per cent for Labour, 30 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 28 per cent for the Greens, and just 24 per cent for the Conservatives. The Farage-led party also came in first place in confidence in running the country effectively, with 36 per cent, followed by Labour, which had 33 per cent.
Over the weekend, Mr Farage laid out key parts of his party’s plans for governing should they win the next election, including a “halt” on immigration with the aim of reducing population increases through mass migration to zero. Reform would also leave the deportation-blocking European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), “so illegal immigrants who cross the Channel will be barred from making asylum claims,” he said. Additionally, Farage said that his party would end the “racket of family reunions and student ‘over-stayers’”.
The Reform boss also vowed to “abolish” the Net Zero green agenda, which seeks to cut carbon emissions to “net zero” by the year 2050. The agenda, which has contributed to Britain having some of the world’s most expensive energy prices, has been “disastrous” for the people of the UK, Farage argued. Instead, Reform would “revive our North Sea oil and gas industry” and “use Rolls-Royce small modular nuclear reactors to power towns around Britain,” he said.
The populist party would also “ban two-tier justice” and ensure that “diversity hires will be consigned to the dustbin as well” to foster a “meritocracy where people are judged by what they give, not by what they take.”
“Millions of Britons have lost hope. I don’t blame them. For too long, both Labour and the Conservatives have ground them down by reneging on their promises, making the wrong decisions and disrupting lives at the stroke of an ill-informed minister’s pen,” Farage wrote.
“I fought for Brexit and won. I never changed my beliefs and I repaid the trust that millions placed in me. Becoming your next prime minister is the biggest challenge of my life but the stakes could not be higher for all of us.
“I will repay those who put their trust in me. I will not let the country down. If there is one lesson that was given by the historic election results on May 1, it is that change can happen via the ballot box. If you want Reform, you must vote for it.”
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