Evaluating Chet Holmgren’s Production Since Return From Injury

If the Oklahoma City Thunder want to make a deep playoff push this season and potentially win a championship, it will come down to the team’s complimentary stars. There’s no question that MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will make his presence felt, just like he did last postseason. The real swing factor will be the play of both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. That duo has the ceiling of being among the best secondary punches in the entire NBA, but the playoffs will truly put that to the test.

Williams earned an NBA All-Star nod this season and has established himself as a premier player in this league, but Holmgren has missed a significant portion of the season. The 7-footer had a phenomenal start to the 2024-25 campaign, but went down with an injury in the tenth game of the season that sidelined him for multiple months.

Holmgren returned to the court for in-game action early last month, now having 12 games under his belt since returning from the injury. He’s been eased back into the rotation, still taking games off for rest as he gets in game shape.

But how has Holmgren looked since returning relative to his production before the injury?

Pre-Injury:

• 8-1 Record
• 28.8 MPG
• 18.2 PPG
• 9.2 RPG
• 2.2 APG
• 2.9 BPG
• 40.0% 3PT (3.9 3PA)
• 77.6% FT (5.4 FTA)
• +9.7

Post Injury:

• 10-2 Record
• 27.8 MPG
• 13.9 PPG
• 8.4 RPG
• 1.8 APG
• 2.5 BPG
• 34.1% 3PT (3.7 3PA)
• 68.2% FT (3.7 FTA)
• +8.6

Although Holmgren’s production isn’t at the same level, especially when it comes to scoring, it isn’t all that surprising. It’s not easy to get into a groove when rest days are taken and you’re being integrated back into a system. Holmgren has sometimes been somewhat passive as a shooter, but he’s also showcased his ability to score when needed. In his 12 games since returning to the lineup, the 7-footer has posted three games of 20+ points.

More importantly, his impact on winning has been undeniable. Holmgren’s box plus/minus of +8.6 is the best on the team since he returned to the lineup. The raw numbers still aren’t back to where they were before the injury, but his importance is still there. Holmgren’s jumper and free throw efficiency should also increase as his legs get back under him. The defensive side of the ball hasn’t skipped a beat for the Thunder center, as he’s completely changed the game on that end.

It’s important to note that in Holmgren’s minutes before the injury, he was the only healthy center on the roster. Now, he’s playing a large portion of his minutes alongside another center — notably Isaiah Hartenstein. Oklahoma City is still figuring out how Holmgren and Hartenstein can co-exist, as that duo has only improved alongside one another with each passing game.

All that matters is that Holmgren is back in shape, healthy and integrated into the rotation and system by the start of the playoffs. Over the final few weeks of the regular season, that should be the primary objective for both him and the Thunder coaching staff. As the second or third-best player on this team, OKC’s ability to win a title this season will lean heavily on Holmgren’s performance in the postseason.