Ecuador is preparing to hold a general election on February 9 to choose the next president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly for the next four years.
The election will see incumbent President Daniel Noboa run for reelection against 15 other candidates. If no candidate obtains either 50 percent of the vote or at least 40 percent with a ten-point lead over his closest rival, a runoff election will take place on Sunday, April 13, between the two most-voted candidates.
Noboa, a 37-year-old outsider, was elected in October 2023 in a snap election called after his predecessor, former President Guillermo Lasso, used an obscure “mutually assured death” constitutional clause to dissolve both the executive and the legislative branches of government that year.
Lasso said at the time that he had to use the provision due to the nation’s socialist lawmakers abusing the parliament’s impeachment provisions and launching 14 different impeachment processes against him between 2021 and 2023, which made it impossible for Lasso to govern. Both Noboa and the current members of the Ecuadorian parliament were elected in 2023 to serve the remainder of that constitutional five-year term.
The electoral campaign began last week and will run through February 6. During that time, candidates may only spend up to $5.4 million in their respective campaigns. Voting in Ecuador is compulsory for every registered citizen between the ages of 18-65 and optional for minors aged 16-17 and the elderly over 65. Individuals subject to compulsory voting who do not participate in the election receive a fine.
The 16-man presidential ballot features a wide array of candidates from all across the political spectrum, ranging from Jorge Escala Zambrano of the Marxist Popular Unity party to Henry Kronfle Kozhaya of the conservative Christian Social Party. The Anti-corruption Construye Movement party, whose candidate for 2023 snap election candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated, will be represented this time by politician Henry Cucalón.
As per Ecuadorian electoral law, all presidential candidates must publish a document containing their work plan and campaign promises should they become elected, which can be accessed at the website of the National Electoral Council (CNE). The document must contain a diagnosis of the country’s current situation, list general and specific objectives, present a multi-year work plan with proposals and strategies to be implemented if elected, and list periodic and public mechanisms for accountability of the candidate.
While every candidate has vowed to carry out policies in line to their corresponding ideology, the candidates have reportedly prioritized Ecuador’s rampant security and energy problems. In recent years, Ecuador has faced a severe security crisis and out-of-control gang violence. Shortly after a group of armed men stormed a local news channel in January 2024, current President Noboa declared a state of “internal armed conflict” against over 20 of the nation’s most dangerous gangs, designating them as military targets.
The South American nation also faces a severe energy crisis that worsened last year, leading to a nationwide power blackout in June 2024 and rolling blackouts of up to 12 hours per day. Noboa’s administration attributed the severe energy crisis to a lack of investment and maintenance by previous administrations.
Although there are 16 candidates on the ballot, polls published last week appear to indicate that the upcoming presidential election is poised to be a repeat of the 2023 snap election race between Noboa and establishment socialist candidate Luisa González, a protegé of socialist former president and fugitive convicted felon Rafael Correa — sentenced in absentia to eight years on corruption charges in 2020.
As of last week, local polling agency Cedatos found Noboa with 29.7 percent voter intention against González’s 20.1 percent, while polling agency Comunicaliza has Noboa polling at 32.9 percent against González’s 29.3 percent. According to local outlets, all remaining candidates collectively amount to roughly ten percent.
At 37-years old, Noboa is Ecuador’s youngest president ever. The current president is the heir to one of the world’s largest banana companies. The Ecuadorian president delegated the presidency to his current vice president last week so he could campaign in compliance with local laws — but returned to the presidency three days later on Sunday after the assassination of Eber Ponce Rosero, mayor of the city of Arenillas.
Noboa, who identified himself as “center-left” in his campaign proposal document, stated that, if elected, he will seek to strengthen public security and modernize law enforcement, crime prevention strategies, and improve international cooperation against drug trafficking.
Noboa’s signature policy is the “Phoenix Plan,” a list of security measures aimed at curbing Ecuador’s rampant gang violence and drug trafficking. Some of the policies call for the construction of two maximum-security “mega-prisons” in the style of one built by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele in his country.
In April, Noboa held a referendum asking the electorate for approval of a series of constitutional amendments and changes to existing security-related legislation. The proposals were overwhelmingly approved.
The incumbent president’s main rival, Luisa González, promised at the start of her 2025 campaign to “revive” Ecuador and accused the current administration of failing to uphold its campaign promises.
The leftist candidate vowed that, if elected, the objective of her presidency would be to achieve “good living in a fair and egalitarian democracy, with a plurinational and intercultural State of rights and justice, which promotes our freedoms, capacities and aspirations in a supportive society with equal economic, political, cultural and ecological opportunities.”
All 16 presidential candidates will hold a debate in the capital city of Quito on Sunday, January 19. Due to the number of candidates, CNE sorted all 16 into two groups of eight as per the results of a drawing held on Monday. Each group will debate for roughly 90 minutes. Noboa and González were each placed in different groups and, as a result, will not face each other in the two back-to-back debate rounds that day.
Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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