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Today, Ecuadorians will decide their future in a presidential election that pits conservative Daniel Noboa against leftist Luisa González, as drug trafficking and violence turn the country into a powder keg.
Ecuador is not just choosing a president: it is choosing between a tough-on-crime stance or a return to a populism that reeks of Correa-era mothballs.
Citizens will head to the polls for a runoff after a technical tie in February: Noboa obtained 44.29% and González 43.85%, according to the National Electoral Council (CNE).
Neither reached the 50% required to win, nor the 40% with a 10-point lead, as mandated by the Constitution.
The tension is palpable in a country where insecurity reigns. In 2023, Ecuador recorded the highest homicide rate in Hispanoamerica, according to InSight Crime, and in just 2024 alone, the province of Guayas has already seen over 3,000 murders — a jewel of the drug trade that is devouring cities like Guayaquil.
Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman educated at Harvard, has focused his campaign on security. His raid on the Mexican embassy to capture a Correa-aligned fugitive, though controversial, shows a leader unafraid to confront crime.
Opposing him is González, protégé of former president Rafael Correa — exiled in Belgium and sentenced for corruption — stirring up promises of social spending under the slogan “Revitalize Ecuador.”
With what money, if the country is bankrupt? Her plan reeks of the same demagoguery that left Ecuador in ruins a decade ago.
The current crisis has deep roots. The boom in drug trafficking, with cocaine flowing from Colombia and Peru, has turned Ecuador into a key corridor for cartels.
The economy, on the brink of collapse according to the Atlantic Council, doesn’t help: poverty affects 27% of the population, a jewel of leftist policies that promised paradise and delivered misery.
The shadow of Correa — with his history of authoritarianism and waste — looms over González, while Noboa, with his pragmatic style, appeals to those who see him as a bulwark against chaos.
This context isn’t new. Since the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023, electoral violence has been a constant.
Noboa took office in an already fractured country, inheriting a weak state and a society fed up with empty promises.
González, for her part, represents the return of a project that, under Correa, concentrated power, persecuted the press, and left a public debt that still strangles the nation.
Ecuador is at a crossroads. Electing González would be like inviting Chávez over for tea: a ticket to disaster.
Noboa offers something the left will never understand: order, discipline, and respect for individual liberty.
In this chaos, his figure resembles Trump, ready to confront criminals without asking for permission. Conservative values — security, hard work, family — are the anchor Ecuador needs to keep from sinking.
Let the ballots speak — but let them speak with common sense.
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