David Harbour, Hannah John-Kamen, Sebastian Stan, Florence Pugh and Wyatt Russell in … More
Industry box office projections are on the soft side for the upcoming antihero adventure Thunderbolts* — at least in comparison to other Marvel Cinematic Universe movies.
The release of Disney/Marvel’s Thunderbolts* — an action-adventure featuring a group of antiheroes akin to DC’s The Suicide Squad — kicks off the 2025 summer movie season on May 2. Studios and theater owners are no doubt hoping to avoid another shockingly sluggish start like the summer of 2024, when The Fall Guy fell flat in its opening weekend May 3-5 with a domestic gross of $27.7 million.
Early tracking numbers for Thunderbolts*, fortunately, don’t sink to those depths, but they’re certainly on the lower end of what Disney is used to making from its MCU movies.
As of early April, Thunderbolts* was projected by The Hollywood Reporter to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $63 million to $77 million, with the target number falling in the middle at $70 million. Box Office Pro’s tracking casts a wider net and is a lot more optimistic, projecting an opening weekend between $65 million to $85 million.
Even on the high end of Box Office Pro’s projections, an $85 million opening for Thunderbolts* pales in comparison to the MCU’s previous summer offering Deadpool & Wolverine, which earned $211 million in its opening weekend of July 2024. What made Deadpool & Wolverine’s blazing opening even more remarkable was that it was an R-rated movie that shattered the mold of its previous PG-13 offerings.
Instead, a Thunderbolts* opening on the low end is comparative to the 2021 MCU chapter Eternals ($71.2 million) — but not nearly as disastrous as 2023’s The Marvels ($46.1 million) — and on the high end is akin to Captain America: Brave New World’s $88.8 million three-day gross ($100 million over four-day President’s Day weekend) in February.
In comparison to more recent early May MCU openings to kick off the summer movie season, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 earned $118.4 million from May 5-7, 2023, while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 made $146.5 from May 5-7, 2017. In between, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness grossed $187.4 million in its opening three-day frame from May 6-8, 2022.
Certainly, an opening take anywhere between $65 million to $85 million is a solid number for most films, but it’s important to remember that Thunderbolts* is an MCU film, which generally have bigger production budgets.
To date none of the industry’s trade publications have reported the production budget for Thunderbolts*, but it wouldn’t be a shock to learn the film was made anywhere in the $150 million to $200 million range before prints and advertising. The last two MCU offerings — Deadpool & Wolverine ($200 million) and Captain America: Brave New World ($180 million) — had enormous production spends before P&A, so it’s reasonable to think the budget for Thunderbolts* is in the same vicinity.
Tracking numbers, of course, are just that, and the executives at Disney/Marvel will find out come the weekend of May 2-4 whether they can breathe a sigh of relief if the film defies early projections like A Minecraft Movie or start sweating if they fall far short of long-range forecasts like Snow White.
If there’s any saving grace, Thunderbolts* will have an opportunity to gain some ground in its second weekend from May 9-11. The only major release coming out on May 9 is the indie horror comedy Clown in a Cornfield, which generated great buzz and stellar reviews (93% “fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes) after its debut at SXSW in March.
The competiton from there ramps up on May 16 with the wide releases of the horror thriller Final Destination: Bloodlines and Hurry Up Tomorrow, a psychological thriller starring Abel “The Weeknd” Tesfaye and Jenna Ortega; and Tom Cruise is back on May 23 with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning on May 23.
‘What Is ‘Thunderbolts*’ About?
Most of the characters in Thunderbolts* should be familiar to MCU fans through their introductions in previous MCU films or television series on Disney+.
The official summary for Thunderbolts reads, “Marvel Studios assembles an unconventional team of antiheroes — Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh), Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), Red Guardian (David Harbour), Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), Taskmaster (Olga Kurylenko) and John Walker (Wyatt Russell).
“After finding themselves ensnared in a death trap set by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine (Julia Louis-Dreyfuss), these disillusioned castoffs must embark on a dangerous mission that will force them to confront the darkest corners of their pasts. Will this dysfunctional group tear themselves apart, or find redemption and unite as something much more before it’s too late?”
Thunderbolts* is directed by Jake Scheier (Netflix’s Beef) and also stars Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, Chris Bauer and Wendell Pierce. Rated PG-13, Thunderbolts* opens in theaters on May 2.
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