With an assertive Israel and numerous local rivalries, the region is entering a year in which the cost of error is rising
Forecasting is a thankless business and often one that appears, at first glance, only partly rational. Yet it remains indispensable. Without an effort to look ahead, it is impossible to craft strategy or design public policy in a way that reduces information asymmetry and uncertainty.
In politics and economics, it is more accurate to speak not of “forecasts” in the strict sense, but of identifying trends when observing the behavior of key state and non-state actors. That is precisely the approach taken here, as we outline…
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