After two closer-than-expected elections in a row, Congressman Jared Moskowitz has found himself someplace he doesn’t want to be: on the Republicans’ political radar.
So far, Moskowitz has managed to keep Florida’s 23rd Congressional District in Democratic hands.
But the territory he represents — northern Broward and much of the coast extending south through most of Fort Lauderdale plus a swath of southern Palm Beach County — has rapidly become much more Republican, a trend that’s continuing.
As they continue to erode the Democratic advantage in registered voters, Republicans sense opportunity.
“He is clearly a target of Republicans,” said Erin Covey, the House editor for the independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Democrat Jayden D’Onofrio, chair of the Gen Z-oriented Florida Future Leaders political action committee, said he expects Moskowitz to win reelection in November 2026.
“Will it be a challenge? Absolutely,” he said, adding that “it would be foolish to act like the Moskowitz seat isn’t … their next target.”
Republicans essentially ceded the district to the Democrats in 2022 when Moskowitz first ran and won, and in 2024, when he was reelected. National Republicans didn’t think their party could win, so they spent their energy and money elsewhere, largely leaving their nominees to fend for themselves in organizing and fundraising.
That won’t happen again, said Richard DeNapoli, Broward’s elected state Republican committeeman and a former county Republican party chair.
“That seat’s in play,” DeNapoli said. “A lot of national prognosticators did not believe it would be anywhere near as close as it was in both years. People are starting to look at it a lot more now.”
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Republican attention
Republicans have turned up the heat in recent weeks.
The party campaign organization dedicated to electing Republicans and defeating Democrats in U.S. House races has started messaging efforts aimed at softening up Moskowitz.
Among the assertions from the National Republican Congressional Committee are that he “caved to the radical left and voted to crush Americans with higher taxes and more wasteful government spending,” and that he “turned his back on hardworking Americans.”
One NRCC label: “Radical Democrat Jared Moskowitz.”
On Wednesday, the NRCC launched digital ads against 34 Democratic incumbents. The Moskowitz version accused him of hurting “Florida’s families.”
The ad was standard political fare — a black and white picture of Moskowitz, looking forlorn, and ominous music in the background. The committee didn’t spend much on running it (it wouldn’t say how much), but it a signal of the races in which it sees opportunity.
“Out-of-touch Democrat Jared Moskowitz has repeatedly bent the knee to the most extreme wing of his party instead of putting his constituents — and common sense — first. Moskowitz is more interested in getting on TV than delivering for Floridians,” Maureen O’Toole, eastern regional press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said via email. “Moskowitz’s days in Congress are numbered.”
Democrats, at least publicly, aren’t expressing concern.
Earlier this month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its list of 26 “Frontline” incumbents, the ones seen as most vulnerable in the next election and warrant extra resources and support. Moskowitz was not on the list.
And the Cook Political Report rates the Moskowitz race as “lean” Democratic, meaning it’s competitive, but Democrats have an advantage. Another independent nonpartisan organization, Inside Politics, also lists it as “lean Democratic.”
Lining up
Several Republicans are seeking their party’s nomination to challenge Moskowitz. O’Toole called it a “strong Republican field.”
Multiple Republicans sought their party’s nomination in 2022 and 2024. One difference as the 2026 campaign begins is the early March entry of former state Rep. George Moraitis, who has won multiple elections in territory that lies in the 23rd Congressional District.
Moraitis, a Naval Academy graduate and lawyer, served four terms before term limits forced him to leave office in 2018. He’s also a past chair of the Broward Republican Party who supported Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential candidacy, at a time when skeptics — incorrectly, it turned out — thought it could hurt him in a coastal district home to many moderate voters.
His wife, Heather Moraitis, is a former Fort Lauderdale city commissioner.
Having potentially stronger candidates enter the primary is “a sign that they think they can win,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University. If Moraitis raises substantial campaign money, that could encourage national Republican organizations to provide additional financial and organizational support.
Although he’s known in the political, business and legal communities, Moraitis only represented part of the congressional district. He was last on the ballot in 2016. The transient nature of the Florida population, including many people new to the state since he left office, means he’ll have to introduce himself to many voters.
So far, there are three other candidates. Collectively they’ve run for Congress nine times before.
— Raven Harrison: She received 5.5% of the vote in a Texas congressional primary 2022, finishing last in a five-candidate race. She describes herself online as “The Conservative Warrior.”
— Joe Kaufman: The unsuccessful 2024 nominee hasn’t filed paperwork yet, but said in December he started planning his 2026 candidacy as soon as last year’s election was wrapped up. Kaufman is a counter-terrorism researcher, writer and lecturer, who previously ran for Congress in 2018, 2016, 2014 and 2012. He also unsuccessfully ran for state House of Representatives in 1990 and 2000.
— Darlene Cerezo Swaffar: She lost three Republican primaries for Congress, in 2020, 2022 and 2024. She runs a Medicare health insurance brokerage firm.
Moskowitz ideology
Each time he casts a vote in Congress, Moskowitz is juggling many priorities: demands of Democratic Party base voters, desires of an increasingly conservative voting population in his district, the political need to ward off Republican attacks, and his own philosophical beliefs and experience.
Despite the Republicans labeling him a “radical,” Moskowitz casts more votes with Republicans and has cooperated with the opposing party more than many Democrats would like.
The former elected Parkland city commissioner and state representative was appointed to two posts by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis: Florida director of emergency management, and later to fill a vacancy on the Broward County Commission.
Moskowitz has the lowest rating of any Florida Democrat in scoring by Progressive Punch, which produces a database of congressional voting records from a progressive perspective. He was the only state Democrat who has a “D” from the group. (It’s not a static rating. One year ago, he had an “F” rating.)
Several of his 2025 votes stand out because he sided with Republicans.
Censure: Moskowitz was one of only 10 Democrats to vote with the Republicans in favor of censuring U.S. Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, who interrupted, berated and waved his cane at President Donald Trump during his March 4 speech to a joint session of Congress.
Laken Riley Act: Moskowitz was the only Florida Democrat, and one of 46 in the House, who voted with the Republican majority in favor of the first bill signed into law by Trump during his second term. The new law was named after a Georgia nursing student who was murdered by an undocumented immigrant last year while she was jogging. The law requires detention of undocumented immigrants charged with crimes, including nonviolent burglary, theft or shoplifting. Republicans used Riley’s case as a political weapon against Democrats last year.
Appliances: Moskowitz was among seven Democrats who voted with the Republicans early in March to overturn updated certification requirements and labels for appliances issued by the Energy Department under former President Joe Biden. And last month, he was one of 11 Democrats who voted with the Republican majority to block a Biden administration-issued efficiency rule on instant, tankless water heaters.
“The crossing party lines is either the sign of a more maverick legislator or it can be the sign of a legislator that’s very aware that their seat has some danger in the next election,” Wagner said.
On one of the most important votes of the year, so far, he was with the Democrats in near-unanimous opposition to the legislation to keep the government operating through Sept. 30.
“This is a moderate district, and my voting record reflects that. As a lifelong Democrat, I’m fighting to bring down the cost of living and protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans benefits, but will also find common ground when possible,” Moskowitz said via email.
James Quebbeman, a Coral Springs retiree, said he’s a lifelong Democrat who didn’t like the congressman’s vote to censure Green, and called his office to express his dismay.
“I watch very carefully what Congressman Moskowitz is doing. I voted for him the first time, and I voted for him the second time, with both ears open. And now I’m starting to see some cracks in the veneer a little bit,” he said. Still, he said, he’d ultimately rather have Moskowitz in office casting some votes that he doesn’t like than to have a Republican representative.
And D’Onofrio said Moskowitz voting at times with Republicans wouldn’t cost him support among Democrats. “At the end of the day, we’re all Democrats, united,” he said. “As Democrats, we can’t keep this infighting up for progressives versus moderates.”
The distinct
The once overwhelmingly Democratic territory in what is now the 23rd Congressional District has become much more Republican as newcomers have moved to the area in recent years.
Moskowitz won the 2022 and 2024 elections by the smallest margins of any congressional race in the state. He received 52.4% of the vote in November, two years after he won his first term in the House with 51.6% of the vote. Still, he did better than the Democratic candidates for president or governor at the top of the ticket did in his district.
Registration: Voter registration records show the district still has a higher share of registered Democrats (36.4%) than Republicans (30.8%).
But the number of registered Democrats has decreased and the number of registered Republicans has increased since the 2022 election, when Moskowitz was first elected.
As of the beginning of March, there were 25,690 fewer registered active Democratic voters in the 23rd District than there were on Election Day 2022. There are 4,131 more Republican registered votes. No party affiliation/independent voters also have decreased, by 11,967.
New requirements for maintaining voter rolls went into effect before the 2024 election, so both parties lost registered voters between 2022 and 2024.
In the months since the November 2024 election, Democrats have seen a slight increase, of 1,814, in registered voters. During that same time, Republicans added 5,339 registered voters. And there are 4,580 more no party affiliation/independent voters.
Geography: The more populous Broward part of the district is still mostly Democratic. The Palm Beach County part of the district, which is home to three in 10 of the district’s voters, is more Republican. In both elections, Moskowitz won the Broward part of the district and lost in the Palm Beach County section.
Presidential: In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden finished 13.2 percentage points ahead of Republican Donald Trump in the territory that’s in District 23. In 2024, Democrat Kamala Harris finished 1.9 percentage points ahead of Trump. That’s a shift of 11.3 points toward Republicans, according to numbers posted by Democratic data analyst Matthew Isbell.
“It’s swung pretty far to the right,” the Cook Political Report’s Covey said. “That’s a pretty significant shift.”
Midterm dynamics
The national mood in 20 months could work in Moskowitz’s favor. “In a midterm election the expectation is that the president’s party generally has a rougher go of it. There are exceptions, but historically that tends to be the case,” Wagner said.
That means 2026 “may not be the best time to try and flip” the district, he said.
Wagner said that’s not guaranteed, especially as more and more voters have become so closely identified with their political parties.
DeNapoli, too, said the usual dynamic is a new president’s party loses seats in the first midterm. “Will that dynamic hold?” he said. “(Or) are we in just a different permanent red state situation, where that impacts the Democrat candidates all the way down the line. That’s what the unknown is.”
D’Onofrio, the Florida Future Leaders chair, said he expects Moskowitz to win next year. “Comon sense would tell me Democrats are going to have a good year in ’26. But, as always, this is Florida.”
Anthony Man can be reached at [email protected] and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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