Congress returns Tuesday facing one big deadline: a possible federal government shutdown on Oct. 1 if Republicans and Democrats can’t come together on a funding deal.
But congressional leaders also have to manage a pileup of other thorny issues that could derail their plans and make September an unusually unpredictable month on Capitol Hill.
The potential fights include President Donald Trump’s push to tackle crime in Washington and elsewhere, the pending Senate pileup of his nominees, an ongoing push to ban stock trading by lawmakers and the looming expiration of key health care subsidies.
There’s also the explosive matter that forced the House to beat an early exit out of town in July: a bipartisan push to release Justice Department files related to the sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein.
Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) plan to start the process of forcing a vote on their bill to compel the complete disclosure of Epstein-related documents “immediately,” Massie said in an interview.
“This has not gone away like the speaker had hoped,” Massie said. “If anything, now that the DOJ is releasing documents, it’s increasing the momentum.”
The GOP dissension over Epstein, as well as internal pressure to hold a vote on cracking down on member stock trading, pose twin threats to Speaker Mike Johnson’s control of the House as the shutdown deadline approaches.
Even a minor blowup could threaten Republican unity at a moment where Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune want to present a united GOP front in the escalating funding fight.
Thune is facing challenges of his own: Senate Republicans are gearing up to change the chamber’s rules on presidential nominations amid pent-up frustration over the pace of confirmations — even as the White House throws them into a fight over the Federal Reserve’s independence that many of them are wary about.
Both chambers will also take up the sprawling annual defense policy bill, including a politically dicey cryptocurrency-related provision favored by House GOP hard-liners. And Republicans will try to quickly act to extend Trump’s control of the D.C. police — and potentially move broader crime legislation.
But the cloud hanging over all of it is that end-of-the-month deadline to avert a politically risky shutdown a year ahead of the midterms with Republican control of Congress at stake.
Senate GOP leaders and appropriators want a short-term year-end patch to buy time for a larger funding deal, possibly including an extension of the health care subsidies. They’ll face pushback from some conservatives, in both chambers and potentially the White House, who want to jam Democrats with a year-long funding bill that reflects GOP funding priorities.
Trump has already thrown Congress an early curveball — and increased the odds of a shutdown — by moving Friday to unilaterally claw back roughly $5 billion in approved foreign aid funding, further eroding already frayed bipartisan trust and infuriating Democrats and some Republicans.
Here’s what to watch heading into the September sprint:
Epstein files
Massie and Khanna plan to launch a discharge petition this week — an effort to sidestep Johnson and force a House vote on their bill requiring the Justice Department to release the complete Epstein files.
The duo is planning a Capitol Hill news conference Wednesday morning with victims of the deceased sex trafficker — just as GOP members and staffers meet with Trump officials for a strategy session blocks away.
Democrats on the Rules Committee, meanwhile, are expected to again force panel Republicans into tough votes by raising Epstein-related measures — a tactic that triggered a GOP mutiny and paralyzed the House floor in July.
Massie acknowledged GOP leaders could try to quash his discharge effort in the Rules Committee. “But I think this issue has reached escape velocity,” he said. “I don’t think they can get away with that on this.”
He added he is confident he can gather the necessary 218 signatures. And Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.), who told reporters last week he would vote for the bill, said the discharge petition was putting his party’s leaders in a tight spot. “I don’t think there’s too many options,” Moore said. “I think you have to take it up, right?”
House GOP leaders, meanwhile, have discussed the option of putting an alternative Epstein resolution up for a vote to head off Massie’s discharge effort, according to two Republicans granted anonymity to relay private discussions.
In the Senate, Democrats on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee invoked a little-used law and set a Sept. 2 deadline for the DOJ to hand over documents and brief panel staff. If the department doesn’t comply, Democrats believe they’ll be able to sue — and keep the issue in the headlines indefinitely.
Member stock trading
Johnson is getting a little more breathing room on another internally divisive matter that has simmered over the summer break: a ban on congressional stock trading.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is making good on her threats to launch a discharge petition that would force a vote on her favored bill, authored by Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.). But she’s signaling she won’t trigger a floor vote immediately when lawmakers return. Instead, she plans to give GOP leaders till the end of the month to bring a stock-trading bill to the floor on their own terms.
If they don’t act, “I am calling up the discharge petition,” Luna said in an interview.
Democrats have privately warned they won’t sign en masse onto a discharge of the narrower Burchett bill alone — they want a more comprehensive measure. Lawmakers say they plan to soon unveil a separate bipartisan compromise that has been months in the making.
But GOP leaders are not yet sold on any ban. Johnson, in fact, has privately argued some lawmakers need to trade stocks in order to pay for their children’s schooling and other expenses.
Presidential nominations
After four weeks out of Washington, Republicans still believe they need to deploy the “nuclear option” to speed up consideration of Trump’s nominees.
That means acting along party lines to change the chamber’s rules, and GOP senators are expected to discuss next steps during a closed-door lunch this week. But their leaders have been laying the groundwork for the move, with Thune warning at a South Dakota event last month that “we’re going to change the way we do nominations in this country.”
Ideas under discussion include reducing the amount of debate time for most presidential nominees, confirming those nominees in groups or eliminating the need for procedural votes. There’s also interest in reducing the number of nominees that require Senate confirmation, but senators believe that would require a new law — not just a rules change.
Republicans will need near-complete unity to change the rules and already GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has said he won’t go nuclear. Facing criticism of Democrats’ nominee blockage, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said “historically bad nominees deserve a historic level of scrutiny by Senate Democrats.”
Crime
Justice Department officials spoke during the recess with a small group of GOP staff about assembling a crime bill, according to two Republicans granted anonymity to describe the early talks.
Trump said last week he wants a “comprehensive” bill dealing with what he sees as a winning issue for Republicans heading into next year’s midterms — and he wants it fast. The package would likely reflect Trump’s push to eliminate no-cash bail nationwide and codify several other of his recent executive actions, among other items.
The talks are still in the “very preliminary” stages, according to one of the Republicans. One GOP lawmaker said passing a crime package would represent a huge win for the party ahead of next year’s midterms — and would also take the focus off Republicans’ Epstein crisis.
Trump is also pushing Congress to extend his 30-day takeover of the D.C. police, which expires on Sept. 9 — but it faces an all-but-guaranteed roadblock from Senate Democrats. He also wants $2 billion to “beautify” Washington, but lawmakers are still waiting for the administration to send over details of the request. What remains to be seen is what policy provisions Hill Republicans would seek to attach to any cash infusion for the overwhelmingly Democratic capital.
Government funding — and more
Republicans notched a huge win this spring when they were able to force Democrats to accept a full-year extension of fiscal 2024 funding levels. This time, however, the GOP is facing divisions in its ranks over their September funding strategy.
Thune has indicated he would prefer a short-term stopgap that would allow time to make progress toward a larger funding deal with Democrats at the end of the year. That strategy is backed by Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, who is up for reelection in Maine next year, and other members of the spending panel.
But some conservatives in the House and Senate are already pushing for another full-year stopgap, paired with more spending cuts and potential policy sweeteners. House GOP leaders are seriously considering the idea — and it might also have fans in the administration, which has shown little interest in trying to cut a deal with Democrats.
The White House, in fact, significantly amped up chances for a shutdown Friday, when it moved to unilaterally cancel $5 billion in State Department and international aid funding. The so-called “pocket rescission” could be just the first salvo from White House budget director Russ Vought, who is determined to assert new presidential powers to rein in spending.
The move generated immediate backlash from lawmakers who believe the administration is undermining any chance of getting a bipartisan government funding agreement. Collins, for instance, called the move “a clear violation of the law.”
But it’s Democratic leaders who are under fierce pressure to play hardball. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who took fire inside his party for assenting to the spring funding deal, offered a warning Friday: “If Republicans are insistent on going it alone, Democrats won’t be party to their destruction.”
Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are pushing the GOP to come to the table to discuss not only government funding, but also the impending lapse of tax credits offered under the Affordable Care Act. The expiration threatens to spike health insurance premiums for millions of low-income Americans unless lawmakers act.
Many vulnerable House Republicans are also desperate to extend the insurance subsidies, and bipartisan conversations are underway in the Senate. But a growing number of House and Senate conservatives are privately warning that any extension will be offset by additional cuts to Medicaid spending — a red line for Democrats and also some GOP senators.
This week, Johnson and Thune plan to put the spending fight on the back burner. The House is set to vote on the fiscal 2026 Energy and Water funding bill, while the Senate will move forward with the annual defense policy bill.
And while internal GOP strategy talks could break out, leaders are likely to seek out a way to push the ultimate showdown later into the year. The alternative would be a long, bitter and politically perilous shutdown.
Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.
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