The very constituency from which the Conservatives’ self-image and legitimacy flows has abandoned the party, a historic change that may well herald the final end of the world’s oldest political party.
Just 28 per cent of farmers would support the Conservative in a theoretical general election, they told agricultural publication Farmer’s Weekly, down from 57 per cent in 2024 and a commanding 71 per cent in 2020. While Reform does not yet have a majority of farmers saying they’d back Nigel Farage’s political party, Reform is already the first party among farmers with a plurality at 40 per cent, up from 15 per cent in 2024.
Farmer’s Weekly states the changes are driven by “Disenchantment with the Labour government and lasting memories of the previous Conservative administration”, both of whom to a greater or lesser degree have legislated against the countryside, failed to advocate for British agriculture, and punished farmers. Mr Farage and Reform have been most visible on defending rural issues in recent months.
It is not, however, as if before even its latest punitive measures against rural Britain farmers had a particularly rosy view of Labour.
While the party of government languishes at a statistically negligible one per cent today, it was only four per cent two years ago, meaning less than one-in-twenty farmers backed the social democrat party.
The Liberal Democrats do slightly better, and do generally perform well in many wealthy rural areas, carrying enough votes from middle class country-dwellers to win seats. Their support has also been relatively stable, with nine per cent of farmers backing the Liberals now and eight per cent in 2024.
The loss of farmers will be, in terms of the party’s self-image and raison d’être, a hammer blow to the Conservative Party, even if the earliest history of the party was dominated by a split over whether to protect farmers from cheap foreign imports or not. Farmers are a relatively small part of British society in the 21st century, but have traditionally been an important and symbolic bloc to the Conservatives and their loss will telegraph to the rest of the country that even the party’s most steadfast supporters have jumped ship.
Richard Tice, Farage’s deputy leader of Reform UK said of the polling, states the Weekly: “The Conservatives let down the farming community when they were in government and now this Labour government is openly waging war on our family farms. It is no surprise that Reform UK’s support is on the rise amongst farmers.”
The paper states Reform had promised them that, if elected to power, they would reverse Labour’s family farm tax, “slash burdensome paperwork, and scrap net stupid zero”.
The Daily Telegraph reports Mr Farage himself added: “The rural community doesn’t trust the Tories anymore. At the Boxing Day hunt meet I was at, I was overwhelmed by the level of support for Reform.”
The Farmer’s Weekly come amid the latest dire polling for the UK’s Labour government with just 12 per cent of voters saying they back the party. A massive 68 per cent said they disapproved of the government’s performance this week, meaning that after just little more than a year in power, Sir Keir Starmer’s left-wing government is already as unpopular as the old Conservative one it replaced.
Mr Farage has vowed to go “double or quits” to dominate local elections due this year to create a springboard ready to capture the government at the next national elections.
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