CC Sabathia Is On The Cusp Of Being Elected To The Hall Of Fame

There are 273 former Major League players in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Of those, less than 22% – only 60 – have been inducted in their first year of eligibility. Last year, both Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer received that honor. David Ortiz did so in 2022, Derek Jeter in 2020, and Mariano Rivera in 2019, just to name a few recent members of the first-timers club. The list of players who have not had to wait more than one year is as illustrious as you might expect. With the Hall of Fame voting set to be revealed in less than two weeks, there are just two names on this year’s ballot that have a chance to join this exclusive club: Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia.

Ichiro is a lock. The only question with his candidacy is whether or not he will become the first position player (and only the second player after Mariano Rivera) to be elected unanimously.

Sabathia is a much more interesting case. When his name first appeared on the ballot, the consensus was that he would gain induction eventually – maybe even in year two – but would not join the first-timers club. The reason for this was that when stacked against his peers, Sabathia’s numbers simply don’t jump off the page. As Jayson Stark pointed out in The Athletic, here is how CC looks when compared to two other long-tenured left-handed pitchers with more than 200 wins:

• Andy Pettitte 256-153 117 ERA+
• Mark Buehrle 214-160 117 ERA+
• CC Sabathia 251-161 116 ERA+

For context, Pettitte is currently on his seventh HOF ballot, never receiving more than 17% of the vote (in 2023). Buehrle topped out at 11% in his first year in 2021. When you look at the numbers above, it is hard to see how Sabathia could ever get to 75% (the threshold necessary for induction), let alone getting there on the first ballot.

But, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s highly-lauded and highly-reliable Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, Sabathia is currently sitting at 91.1% with 31.7% of the votes counted. He could, of course, fall off and fall down and thus fall below the 75% mark, but as of this writing, his candidacy is looking very strong. How? Why?

Maybe, as pointed out by Stark, it is because he is one of only three left-handed pitchers since 1920 to have won 250 games and struck out 3,000 batters. The other two: Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson. Pretty good company.

It could also be his five-year run from 2007 through 2011, when he went 95-40, threw 21 complete games (including one on three-days’ rest to vault the Milwaukee Brewers into the playoffs for the first time in 26 years), had a 142 ERA+, and finished top five in Cy Young voting each season (including winning the award in 2007).

Sabathia threw 3,577-1/3 innings over a 19-year career, the most of any pitcher to debut since 1989. On thirteen different occasions he topped 180 innings, which, in the last thirty years, is third only to Hall of Famer Greg Maddux (14 times) and the aforementioned Mark Buehrle, who did it 15 times.

His career 116 ERA+ (which incorporates park factors and quality of opponents) is higher than Nolan Ryan’s 112. His 61.8 bWAR is the tenth highest among left-handed pitchers in NL/AL history, with seven of the nine ahead of him already enshrined in the Hall of Fame (and Clayton Kershaw simply a retirement and a five-year waiting period away from receiving his own plaque).

But, possibly the best case for Sabathia being a Hall of Famer is the fact that he exuded hall of fame excellence. No more so than in 2008, when, after being traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee, he put the team on his back and willed them into the post-season. He started 17 games for the Brewers, went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA, and a better than 5-to-1 K/BB ratio. He averaged 7-2/3 innings per start, and threw seven complete games. That three-month period cemented Sabathia as one of the greats of the game, and may have been the special sauce needed to catapult his career from great to glorious.

On January 21^st the world will know who will be a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2025. Ichiro will be on the list. Billy Wagner has a great shot to make it in his last year on the ballot. Carlos Beltrán is on the cusp and may just clear the 75% hurdle. The last question is CC Sabathia. By customary measures – wins, losses, ERA, CC falls shy. By advanced metrics, including Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor, which has 130 as a “virtual cinch,” Sabathia’s 128 should put him over the top. But the only thing that matters is the final vote. And as of right now, CC and his family might want to leave the weekend of July 26-27 open, as they may be making a trip to central New York.