A report from the Congressional Budget Office finds that the One Big Beautiful Bill, passed by the House last month, would increase household resources across most of the income distribution—driven overwhelmingly by reductions in federal taxes.
According to the CBO report released Thursday, average household income would rise over the 2026–2034 period under the legislation, which extends key provisions of the 2017 tax reform law and rolls back various health care and climate subsidies. The biggest winners are households in the top decile, who would gain approximately $12,000 per year, or 2.3 percent of projected income. Middle-income households would also see gains, ranging from $500 to $1,000 annually.
The only group expected to see a net decline in resources are those in the bottom income decile, who would lose about $1,600 per year—or nearly 4 percent of income—largely due to reduced eligibility for Medicaid and food stamp benefits.
“Federal taxes and cash transfers would increase household resources by $3.1 trillion,” the CBO wrote, while reductions in in-kind benefits would lower resources by $1 trillion. The report notes that the estimated losses for the bottom decile stem from lower government spending on Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), not from reduced earnings or employment.
State governments are expected to respond to the legislation by cutting taxes or redirecting spending, contributing a modest $10 billion net gain in household resources, the CBO said.
The analysis does not include potential macroeconomic effects, such as growth or job creation, and excludes certain tax provisions—including the repeal of clean energy credits and estate tax changes—not modeled by the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Still, the overall picture is clear: most U.S. households would see their take-home resources rise under the bill, thanks largely to tax relief. As the CBO put it, “resources would increase for households in the middle and top of the income distribution.”
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