Carlos Correa Is Healthy But Off To A Horrible Start For The Twins

This was supposed to be the year. Every year is supposed to be the year. And, truth be told, many years have been the year. But for Carlos Correa, there was great hope that 2025 was going to be the one where he and his teammates catapulted the club to the next level. When healthy, Correa can be one of the most dynamic players in baseball.

From 2015 through 2017, the shortstop averaged 120 games (slightly below average), but slashed .288/.366/.498, for a 137 OPS+ and 18.4 bWAR. He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2017, and was setting the stage for a potential Hall of Fame-caliber career.

However, chronic back issues hampered his 2018 and 2019 seasons, when he averaged just 92 games, and slashed .255/.337/.472 for a more middling 115 OPS+. In those two years he accrued 6.7 bWAR.

Skipping the Covid-shortened 2020 (93 OPS+), Correa came back with a vengeance in 2021, playing in 148 games, with a 131 OPS+. He was an All-Star, won a Gold Glove, came in 5^th in MVP voting, and accrued 7.3 bWAR. Things were back on track.

As a free agent in 2022, Correa signed a three-year, $105 million deal with the Minnesota Twins, which included an opt-out after the first season. True to form, he exercised that opt-out, and tried to sign with the San Francisco Giants and then the New York Mets, but his poor medicals thwarted both deals. He ended up re-signing with the Twins, agreeing to a 6-year, $200 million contract. And he picked right back up. In fact, from an offensive perspective, 2022 and 2023 were nearly carbon copies of each other:

• 2022: 136 games, 22 home runs, 64 RBI
• 2023: 135 games, 18 home runs, 65 RBI

Unfortunately, since 2022, all of Correa’s defensive metrics have fallen off. This may be due to an unusual number of injuries to the superstar. While Correa’s balky back has always been an issue, since 2022, he has missed time due to a finger injury, contracting Covid, his back, planter fasciitis (twice), an intercoastal strain, and wrist and hand injuries.

It is the planter fasciitis that has been the real bugaboo. In 2023, he played through the diagnosis in his left heel, but just wasn’t himself. He slashed .230/.312/.399 for a 94 OPS+. Once that healed, the next year he was diagnosed with the condition in his right heel. This time, he could not play through the pain, missing two months from July to September. In the 86 games he did play in 2024, he was the “old Correa,” slashing .310/.388/.517, with 14 home runs and a 152 OPS+ (just below a career-high).

Coming into 2025, Correa felt great and was back to full strength. For a Twins team that continues to get bitten by the injury the bug, this was hopeful news. If they can keep Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis healthy, the club has a strong chance to win the up-and-coming American League central. Sadly, on the eve of the season, Lewis went down with a hamstring injury, so the hits had already begun. Fortunately, both Buxton and Correa have been able to play in each of the team’s first five games. Unfortunately, Correa’s production to date is no different than if he was on the injured list.

Through the first five games of the season, Correa is 0-for-17 with one walk. He has grounded into three double plays in 18 plate appearances. On the defensive side, he is yet to make an error, but also yet to add anything, as, per Statcast, he has exactly zero outs above average.

Here is the good news: Historically, March/April have been Correa’s lowest OPS month; he has more strikeouts in this part of the year than any other; he hits to fewest home runs (tied with July); has the second lowest slugging percentage (just ahead of August); and grounds into the most double plays. So, if past is prologue, Correa, a career .274 hitter, who averages 27 homers and 98 RBI, with a 125 OPS+ over a 162-game season, should progress to the mean in the coming weeks and months. But, for now, his at bats are a rough watch. The Twins have begun the year 1-4, but are only one game back as everyone else in the division is just 2-3. The baseball season is long, and small sample size is just that. However, if the Twins want to compete, Correa will need to stay healthy and get out of his current funk.