The pieces could finally be falling into place for Speaker Mike Johnson to pass his “big, beautiful bill” as soon as Wednesday.
Johnson and a group of blue-state Republicans struck a tentative deal late Tuesday to boost the cap on state-and-local-tax deductions to $40,000, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge — a huge breakthrough in the negotiations.
House Freedom Caucus members appear willing to swallow that offer, and it’s a positive sign they aren’t saying “no” off the bat. Rep. Scott Perry (Pa.) left the speaker’s office Tuesday night saying he’s “for zero SALT, personally” but wants to see “what’s the give and take” from the final negotiations.
Here’s one sweetener leadership has presented the hard-liners: Johnson’s team is working to accelerate the phase-out of clean energy tax credits created by the Democrats’ 2022 climate law. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters Tuesday night the bill would “limit dramatically any new projects from starting” using Inflation Reduction Act incentives.
Privately, some of the conservative holdouts are looking for just such an offramp, eager to find a “yes” while also proclaiming victory on their issues. Rep. Glenn Grothman (Wis.) left the speaker’s office Tuesday saying it would “take guts” for Republicans to sink President Donald Trump’s bill on the House floor.
“If you’re in Mike Johnson’s office, it’s easy to say, I’m going to vote no,” Grothman said, adding it’s a lot harder to actually do it.
What Johnson needs to resolve before a floor vote: Fiscal hawks also want deeper cuts to Medicaid, which would be a red line for moderates — and probably even for Trump, who yesterday morning told House Republicans not to “fuck with” the safety-net program. It’s unclear if the rest of the conference will accept the current SALT agreement.
And we’re still waiting on final bill text to reflect any of these changes, which will be bundled into a “manager’s amendment” to be taken up by the House Rules Committee. The GOP-led panel convened at 1 a.m. to begin debate on the massive tax and spending package in hopes of being able to pave the way for a floor vote in the coming hours.
Other required reading:
— The megabill got a preliminary Congressional Budget Office report amid Tuesday night negotiations that predicted the legislation would lead to increased assets for the richest Americans, while reducing them for the lowest-income households through cuts to federal spending on Medicaid and food aid. That’s sure to fuel attacks from Democrats.
— Even if Johnson can pull off passing the megabill through the House, he’s about to face plenty of headaches in the Senate.
What else we’re watching:
— DC voting bill: The House Oversight Committee will vote on a bill at 10 a.m. that would prohibit noncitizens from voting in the District of Columbia. The bill has significant bipartisan appeal: It passed the House last year with the support of 52 Democrats.
— EPA waiver repeal: Republicans are poised to vote Wednesday to overturn the three EPA waivers that the GAO found don’t qualify as a rule that can be reversed with a Congressional Review Act resolution. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso privately made the case to Republicans that the fight over whether to nix California’s emission standards was really about the Senate making a decision about how to wield its own power.
Rachael Bade, Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Ben Leonard contributed to this report.
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