Republicans are hitting a major roadblock in drafting their “big, beautiful” megabill: Divisions over how deeply to cut Medicaid are threatening to upend the timeline for advancing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda.
Energy and Commerce Republicans emerged Monday night from a lengthy closed-door meeting largely tight-lipped as the committee figures out the Medicaid problem. Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) said he still is aiming for a markup next week, but some members are tempering expectations.
“We can get there, but there are so many different pieces in play that it’s hard to say,” panel member Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) told reporters late Monday.
One of their thorniest issues is how to address states that expanded Medicaid access under the Affordable Care Act. Republicans are considering capping or reducing federal Medicaid payments to those states for the program — which would make the program more sustainable, Republicans argue, but could lead to millions of people losing coverage.
“That is an issue we have to negotiate through,” said Guthrie, who has made the case that the changes are necessary to protect the program for the most vulnerable.
Behind closed doors, some Republicans are irked that their leaders are not doing enough explaining: One Republican with direct knowledge of the matter told POLITICO “there’s frustration for not laying out the rationale behind Medicaid cuts.”
The Medicaid debate could set off delays elsewhere. While Ways and Means has made some progress on tax issues, plenty remains in limbo as members wait for other committees to determine how deeply they can cut spending in their panels’ jurisdiction.
“Sitting on their hands for a bit makes a lot of strategic sense,” said one former senior GOP Hill aide.
Once the Medicaid issue is solved, Ways and Means will still have to wait on Agriculture to deal with the next problem: cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Agriculture Committee Republicans are meeting Tuesday to discuss the internally controversial proposal to push some SNAP benefit costs onto states for the first time, according to two Republicans with direct knowledge of the plans. The panel’s markup could slip past next week.
Meanwhile, three other megabill markups begin today. Here’s what we’ll be watching:
— Expect sparks to fly in Armed Services, during which Democrats are likely to force tough votes on politically charged amendments, including on the dysfunction at the Pentagon under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
— Homeland Security will mark up a bill that sends $46.5 billion to expand border security measures including completion of Trump’s border wall.
— Education and Workforce could also get testy as Republicans target a rollback of existing student loan repayment plans — a rebuke to former President Joe Biden.
What else we’re watching:
– Signalgate on the Hill: House Rules Republicans approved a provision Monday night that would forestall a Democratic effort to force votes on Hegseth’s use of an unclassified messaging app. If the rule is adopted Tuesday, so-called resolutions of inquiry could be bottled up through the summer.
– Opioid bill reauthorization: House Energy and Commerce will debate reauthorizing significant legislation to tackle the opioid epidemic, which Trump signed into law during his first administration. Reauthorization of the bipartisan bill was part of a major health care package lawmakers sought to attach to a year-end spending bill last December. But it got scrapped when Trump and Elon Musk complained the funding measure was too full of extraneous provisions.
Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Mackenzie Wilkes contributed to this report.
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