Speaker Mike Johnson held onto a much-needed red seat in Tennessee Tuesday night — but fellow Republicans say this isn’t cause for celebration.
Johnson’s leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race in the special election to succeed former Rep. Mark Green.
But the single-digit margin of victory for Matt Van Epps was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops to rescue their candidate on the final days of the campaign, with the speaker himself traveling to the district to make a final pitch.
“It was too close,” said one House GOP leadership aide.
The surprisingly-tight race between Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn “is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” one House Republican told POLITICO. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”
Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) warned “the GOP should not ignore” how close it came to losing a district President Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024 — not to mention the Democratic gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey last month.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) agreed it was a “dangerous” sign for his party. “In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up,” Cruz said in an interview with Fox on Tuesday night. “Hate is a powerful motivator. They hate President Trump.”
This close call in Tennessee adds to the ongoing headaches for Johnson back in Washington.
The speaker is facing a revolt led by a member of his own leadership team, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), over news that the National Defense Authorization Act likely won’t include her provision to require the FBI to notify Congress when it opens investigations into candidates running for federal office.
Stefanik, who is running for governor, announced Wednesday morning the provision was added back into the NDAA after talking to Johnson — a day after accusing the speaker of blocking the provision and “lying” about it. But with the language back in, Johnson risks losing Democratic support that could be crucial for getting the historically-bipartisan package over the finish line.
Johnson could also be on the verge of being undermined by his own members who want a vote on legislation that would ban congressional stock trading. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) officially moved Tuesday to lay the groundwork to circumvent leadership and force that vote, with Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) saying he and Luna were “tired” of waiting.
Also on Tuesday: Johnson faced a small rebellion on the House floor over a procedural move involving legislation to regulate name, image and likeness compensation in college sports. That could spell trouble around a final vote coming Wednesday afternoon.
And then there’s health care. Johnson is promising that House Republicans will come up with a health policy proposal. But there’s no sign he’ll be able to bring together moderates like Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who wants to extend the enhanced Obamacare tax credits, and conservatives who are downplaying the effects of letting the subsidies lapse.
As retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday, midterm backlash for the GOP could be substantial if Republicans don’t do something to prevent premiums going up come January.
What else we’re watching:
— Venezuela fallout: Significant cracks in GOP unity are growing amid Trump’s campaign to kill alleged drug traffickers off the coast of Venezuela.
— Hawley’s health care pitch: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is rolling out a bill to allow all taxpayers to deduct up to $25,000 in medical expenses. The bill also allows out of pocket expenses on health care premiums to be deducted.
— NDAA latest: House and Senate leaders are engaged in last-minute talks over whether to include new restrictions on U.S. investments in China in the NDAA. It’s one of the last outstanding issues for lawmakers to resolve as they look to release compromise bill text Thursday.
Meredith Lee Hill, Hailey Fuchs, Jordain Carney, Robert King, Alice Miranda Ollstein, Calen Razor and Jasper Goodman contributed to this report.
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