The UK is being forced to increase LNG imports after a 10% annual production drop sent output to a 50-year low
Britain faces a drop in domestic gas production this winter, making it increasingly reliant on imports to keep homes warm and power plants running, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing the country’s national gas grid operator.
National Gas UK forecasts that the UK will receive 6% less gas from its domestic offshore fields this winter than last. This will be offset by a 7% increase in imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Norway will remain the UK’s primary supplier, meeting about 36% of its winter needs, while domestic production will account for only 33%. The third key source will be the global LNG market, which is expected to supply 24% of Britain’s gas.
“Our margins for winter 2025/2026 are tighter than we have seen in the last four years,” the FT cited the company’s annual winter outlook as saying. “This is largely due to the well-documented continued decline in supplies from the UK Continental Shelf.”
According to official government statistics, British gas production plummeted 10% between 2023 and 2024, hitting its lowest level since 1973. National Gas UK identified LNG as the “key source to meet rising winter demand.”
Britain’s growing reliance on LNG is forcing a major re-engineering of its national gas grid, according to John Butterworth, head of National Gas UK. He explained that the system, originally built for Scottish North Sea gas, is now struggling to adapt to supplies landing at terminals in Wales and southern England. Butterworth added that domestic gas production is forecast to fall a further 6% in 2025, deepening the country’s dependence on imports.
The vulnerability of Britain’s gas supply was highlighted this past January by a Daily Telegraph report that natural gas stocks had fallen to a “concerning” low amid a sustained cold snap. The report noted that storage facilities were only half full, holding 26% less gas than a year earlier. The supply crunch underscored a systemic reliance on gas, which fuels about 40% of the UK’s electricity and heats 28 million households – a vulnerability exacerbated by the UK’s ban on Russian LNG imports, which took effect in January 2023.
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