MAGA’s View of the Economy Bounces Back
President Trump has won back the confidence of his supporters on the economy, a public opinion survey released Tuesday showed.
A month ago, we pointed out that the outbreak of the military conflict with Iran had dimmed views of the economy on the American right. Republicans, Trump voters, conservatives, and even self-identified MAGA supporters grew markedly less optimistic about the economy in the weeks following the U.S. attack on the Persian Gulf nation’s military capacity and government leadership.
A new survey by YouGov for the Economist shows a significant recovery in economic sentiment with those Americans. Sixty-two percent of self-described MAGA Americans say the state of the economy is either excellent or good, in the survey taken between April 17 and 20. That nearly matches the pre-war share of 63 percent in a survey from mid-February. A month ago, the share saying the economy was good or excellent had fallen to 54 percent.
Within those numbers, the data is even better. The share saying the economy is in an excellent state rose to 16 percent, up from 11 percent a month prior and above the 12 percent in February.
Among conservatives, the good or excellent share climbed to 49 percent from March’s 43 percent. That’s close to the 52 percent who took that view in February. Among Republicans, the good/excellent share rose to 54 percent from 45 percent, matching the February reading. Fifty-two percent of Republicans say the economy is good or excellent, up from 48 percent a month ago and near February’s 54 percent.
The improved view of the state of the economy is not confined to the right. Twenty-eight percent of moderates describe the economy as good or excellent, up from 20 percent a month ago and above the 27 percent who took the positive view in February. Among registered independents, 23 percent take a positive view, up from 17 percent in March and above the February reading of 20 percent.
Liberals and registered Democrats remain extremely down on the economy, but their views were not much altered by the war or surging energy prices. In February, just 10 percent said the economy was in a good or excellent state. That was unchanged in March and sits at 11 percent in the most recent survey. Registered Democrats have similarly taken a consistently dim view of the economy.
Which Way for the Economy?
The Economist poll also asks about the trend in the economy. On this question, there is still some softness compared with the pre-war survey. Fifty-five percent of MAGA Americans say the economy is getting better, up from 47 percent in March but not yet at the 62 percent share in February. Among conservatives, 44 percent say the trend is positive, up from 40 percent in March but below the 50 percent in February. Forty-two percent of Trump voters see things improving, almost unchanged from March’s 41 percent and well-below the 51 percent from February.
Among registered Republicans, the optimistic share rose to 45 percent in April from March’s 37 percent. In February, however, 51 percent took the positive view.
Independents have not seen a similar revival of optimism. Prior to the war, 13 percent saw the trend as positive. In March, this fell to 10 percent. The most recent survey has it at nine percent. Moderates, similarly, saw their positive share drop from 15 percent in February to eight percent in March and 10 percent in April.
Among liberals and Democrats, views of the economic trend have remained overwhelmingly negative throughout the year.
Household Finances Expectations Are Better Than Pre-War
Perhaps the most striking turnaround in economic views is on the question of personal finances a year from now. Back in February, 50 percent of MAGA said they expected to be better off one year into the future. This tumbled to 46 percent in March. The most recent survey shows this surging to 55 percent. Similarly, among conservatives, the February share expecting to be better off stood at 41 percent. This was unchanged in March. Now it is up to 49 percent.
Trump voters have seen their share of optimism about personal finances rise from 39 percent in February and March to 46 percent. Registered Republicans followed a similar path from 41 percent in February, to 37 percent in March, to 46 percent now.
The outbreak of hostilities between Iran and the U.S. initially shook confidence on the American right. But that has been largely reversed. Indeed, when it comes to the prospects for their own household finances, the American right is now more confident than they were before the clash heated up to a shooting war.
Read the full article here