The San Francisco Fed’s Economists Just Accidentally Vindicated Trump’s Escalating Tariff Policy
If you were trying to make tariffs look like a policy disaster, you’d do exactly what a team of economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco just did : assume every trading partner hits back just as hard and that America just stands there and takes it.
That’s the setup behind a new Economic Letter from the regional bank, which warns of declining wages, higher unemployment, and shrinking GDP in the wake of Trump’s new tariffs. But the moment you dig into the underlying model, the story falls apart. And the punchline? The model winds up…
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