The Puzzle of Rising Wages and Low Payroll Growth
Here is a question that has been nagging at economists: why has wage growth held up so well when payroll growth has been so weak?
In 2025, the U.S. economy added just 181,000 workers to payrolls — a number that would have been considered anemic in any recent year. Yet nominal wages grew at an above-average 3.8 percent across the economy and 4.3 percent in manufacturing. On Friday, the March jobs report came in at 178,000 against expectations of just 59,000 — a blowout that caught the consensus flat-footed. Unemployment fell to 4.3 percent.
While some of the best economists we know are still…
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