The Phantom Softness in the Labor Market
The Dallas Fed published an extraordinary update to its break-even employment framework on Tuesday, and the implications are even bigger than the authors realize.
The new analysis—by economists Anton Cheremukhin, Daniel Wilson, and Xiaoqing Zhou—extends their earlier work, which used immigration court microdata obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests. The data now run through December 2025, and they paint a picture that undercuts the idea that the labor market has been softening.
The break-even rate of employment growth—the number of net new jobs needed each month to keep the unemployment…
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