The Summer Heat (in the Jobs Market) Isn’t a Statistical Illusion
The June jobs report came in hot, with payrolls rising by 147,000 —easily beating Wall Street’s forecast of less than 110,000.
Cue the ritual backlash. Most of the gains, critics quickly noted, came from state and local government hiring . If you subtract that—and, for good measure, toss out health care and social assistance as “government-adjacent”—the private-sector gain dwindles to just 28,000. Not great.
While that looks like a sophisticated read of the jobs report, this quickly evaporates under the pressure of thought. It is true that sometimes a strong headline number for…
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