Another Federal Reserve Tarifflation Study Falls Apart Under Scrutiny

The St. Louis Federal Reserve released a study last week claiming that President Trump’s 2025 tariffs have added roughly 0.5 percentage points to consumer inflation. The analysis, published on the bank’s “On the Economy” blog, uses sophisticated econometric modeling to trace how tariff costs flow through to consumer prices.

There’s just one problem: the study does not actually show that tariffs are adding to inflation . In fact, the data the study depends on can be just as easily deployed to show that tariffs are decreasing inflation by holding down prices on non-tariffed…

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