A Silver Lining in a Soot-Soaked Retail Sales Report

Analysts had visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads for December retail sales . Instead, they got a lump of coal.

The Census Bureau said Tuesday that retail sales were flat in December , well short of the consensus forecast for a 0.4 percent gain. That was a pretty serious retreat after the solid 0.6 percent increase in November.

There are two competing narratives explaining this. Optimists say that holiday demand just showed up earlier than expected, and so consumers did not have as much leftover on their shopping lists in December. The pessimists say it looks like consumers just ran…

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