The Party of McKinley Is Back
Donald Trump won the debate on tariffs within the Republican Party and has greatly increased support for tariffs among all Americans.
A year ago, a YouGov poll of 1,000 adult Americans found that 18 percent of Americans supported higher tariffs, 23 percent supported keeping tariffs where they were, and 22 percent supported lowering tariffs. The largest share of Americans, 36 percent, said they had no opinion on tariff policy.
The most recent survey by YouGov, taken between January 21 and 23, found that support for higher tariffs had risen to 29 percent while support for lower tariffs dropped to 18 percent. Twenty-seven percent said tariffs should remain where they are. Twenty-six percent said they were not sure or had no opinion. In other words, support for higher tariffs has become the plurality opinion in America, up 11 points from last year.
Among Republicans, 54 percent said they think tariffs should be raised in the recent poll, with 15 percent saying they should be left where they are, and just seven percent saying they should be lowered. The YouGov survey that asked Republicans about tariffs last March found that just 27 percent supported higher tariffs, 31 percent supported lowering tariffs, and 26 percent said they should be kept the same. The party of William McKinley is as back as the name of Mount McKinley.
That may actually understate GOP support for tariffs. A poll for CBS News conducted by YouGov in mid-January found that 80 percent of Republicans said they favored imposing new tariffs while 20 percent oppose new tariffs. Interestingly, 45 percent of Republicans also say they think that new tariffs will raise prices of the goods they buy. That implies that a significant portion of Republicans support tariffs even if they raise prices.
The McKinleyite-Trumpist GOP Is More Popular Than Ever
It’s notable that as the Republican Party has become much more favorably-disposed to tariffs, it has also become much more popular with the American people.
Here’s how Quinnipiac explained its new poll results this week:
In today’s poll, 31 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 57 percent have an unfavorable opinion. This is the highest percentage of voters having an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party since the Quinnipiac University Poll began asking this question.
Forty-three percent of voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion. This is the highest percentage of voters having a favorable opinion of the Republican Party since the Quinnipiac University Poll began asking this question.
This marks the biggest favorability advantage the Republican Party (43 percent) has held over the Democratic Party (31 percent) since the Quinnipiac University Poll began asking these questions.
YouGov’s poll reached similar results. Just 36 percent of adults have a favorable opinion of Democrats. Fifty-five percent say they have an unfavorable opinion. Among Hispanics, just 32 percent have a favorable opinion, and 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Among white Americans, just 31 percent see Democrats favorably, compared with 62 percent who see the party unfavorably. Black American opinion skews heavily in favor of Democrats—but less so than you might think. Seventy-three percent have a favorable opinion, and 17 percent unfavorable.
For Republicans, 42 percent of adult Americans have a favorable opinion, versus 49 percent unfavorable. That includes 41 percent of Hispanics who view the party favorably and 45 percent who view it unfavorably. Among white Americans, 47 percent view the GOP favorably, and 46 percent view it unfavorably. Just 22 percent of black Americans view Republicans favorably, and 66 percent view it unfavorably.
It’s no wonder that Trump has not hesitated to follow through on his promise to impose tariffs. His party definitely has his back when it comes to the 25 percent tariff he said he would impose on Canada and Mexico. The YouGov poll found that 67 percent of Republicans support those tariffs and just 18 percent oppose.
Given the massive support of his party for tariffs in general and specifically for tariffs on Mexico and Canada, it is not at all surprising that Trump is moving forward with the tariffs. It also means that our trading partners should take note: Trump has no reason to back down because his party is united in support of raising tariffs and a plurality of Americans of all political stripes agree.
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