Inflation by Assumption: The Fed’s Tariff Shortcut
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made headlines last week when he warned that new tariffs could push prices higher , remarking: “Everyone I know is forecasting a meaningful increase on prices from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs.”
That may be true of Powell’s circle, but it’s not true of the data . And if Powell is drawing his view from the latest Federal Reserve research, he may be misled by a model that appears far more rigorous than it really is.
A new working paper from the Boston Fed claims that nearly all of the cost of the 2018–2019 tariffs on Chinese imports was…
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