Surging Republican Support for Tariffs
There’s a specter haunting the Republican Party — the specter of William McKinley.
The Republican Party has firmly re-established itself as the party of tariffs, marking a sharp departure from the free trade consensus that dominated its economic philosophy in the late 20th century. New polling data shows that GOP support for tariffs has surged over the past year, even as Democrats have moved in the opposite direction. What was once considered a Trump-driven deviation from the “free trade consensus” has now become a foundational pillar of Republican economic thinking—a modern revival of the McKinley-era GOP, which championed high tariffs as a means to fortify American industry.
The shift in Republican views on tariffs has been dramatic. A year ago, a YouGov poll found that only 38 percent of Republicans supported increasing tariffs, and 20 percent supported lowering them. Today, 51 percent of Republicans support higher tariffs, and just 5 percent want tariffs lowered. Meanwhile, Democratic opposition to tariffs has hardened. One year ago, only 22 percent of Democrats favored lowering tariffs; today, that number has nearly doubled to 40 percent.
The latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll reinforces this realignment, finding that 57 percent of voters now view tariffs as an effective tool of both economic and foreign policy. Moreover, 61 percent of voters support reciprocal tariffs. A 53 percent majority believes reciprocal tariffs will convince other countries to lower their own trade barriers, a key argument for Trump’s trade policies.
The poll also highlights a growing belief that tariffs are a necessary economic safeguard. While 62 percent of voters believe tariffs will raise prices on everyday goods, Republican enthusiasm remains strong, with only half of GOP voters agreeing with that premise, compared to 75 percent of Democrats. According to the YouGov polls, 78 percent of Republicans who support higher tariffs say they would support them even if the result is higher consumer prices, a demonstration that support for tariffs is likely to be resilient. Furthermore, 54 percent of voters believe tariffs will help secure economic concessions from other countries, a reflection of Trump’s broader trade strategy. Despite media narratives about tariff backlash, the polling suggests a majority of Americans see them as a viable means of strengthening U.S. trade leverage.
Democrat Tariff-Hate Drives Down Consumer Confidence
The partisan divide over tariffs has also played a role in the recent decline in consumer confidence. According to the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, confidence fell nearly 10 percent from January, with a 19 percent drop in buying conditions for durable goods, largely due to fears that tariffs will drive prices higher. Expectations for personal finances and short-term economic outlook both declined almost 10 percent, while long-term expectations fell six percent to their lowest level since November 2023. However, this decline was not universal. Consumer sentiment among Republicans remained unchanged, while Democrats and Independents drove the overall drop, reflecting a stark partisan divide on the impact of tariffs.
Similarly, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped by seven points in February to 98.3, marking the largest decline since August 2021. The Expectations Index, a measure of short-term economic sentiment, fell below 80—historically a recession signal, although the index has been a false alarm in the post-pandemic period—for the first time since mid-2024. The report also noted a sharp increase in references to tariffs and trade policy, reaching levels not seen since 2019. Inflation concerns have surged alongside tariff worries, with 12-month inflation expectations rising from 5.2 percent to 6 percent, the highest level in months. Although the Conference Board doesn’t provide a partisan breakdown of its results, it is likely that the same gap between Democrat and Republican expectations about tariffs and inflation is driving the confidence index results.
The decline in consumer confidence may be a false signal. Broader polling shows that 42 percent of voters say the country is on the right track, up 14 points from January. Thirty-one percent of voters say their personal financial situation is improving, a 5-point increase.
Surging American Support for Republicans
This realignment on trade has come amid surging Republican favorability relative to Democrats. According to the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, the Democratic Party’s approval rating has sunk to a record low of 36 percent, now 15 points lower than the GOP. Meanwhile, Republicans enjoy a net-positive favorability rating of 49 percent. Trump himself holds a 52 percent approval rating, with particular voter satisfaction in his handling of immigration, government spending, and economic policies. The polling makes it clear: the Republican Party, now the party of tariffs, is seen much more favorably than the Democratic Party.
Historically, the Republican Party was defined by its support for high tariffs. From Abraham Lincoln to William McKinley, the GOP advocated for trade policies designed to protect domestic industries, build national infrastructure, and insulate American workers from foreign competition. This commitment to tariffs remained a core feature of Republican economic policy well into the 20th century, until the party embraced free trade as part of the strategy to win the global struggle against communism.
Interestingly, although the Republican Party was officially a free trade party according to its election year platforms, there was very little polling data about how Republican voters thought about tariffs. Until Trump upended the party’s official attachment to free trade, tariff policy was not an issue that pollsters asked about very often. The so-called “free trade consensus” among GOP elites may have been out-of-sync with the views Republican voters for quite some time, perhaps since the end of the Cold War.
At the same time, the Democratic Party has moved in the opposite direction. Once the party of labor-backed trade skepticism, Democrats have increasingly supported policies that foster greater dependence on global supply chains, Chinese manufacturing, and imports. Their support for lowering tariffs has nearly doubled in just a year, reflecting a growing divide between progressive elites and working-class voters. This shift has further solidified the Republican Party’s embrace of economic nationalism, positioning the GOP as the primary advocate for policies designed to strengthen domestic manufacturing.
Trump’s return to the White House has accelerated the Republican Party’s return to its support for high tariffs. Just as McKinley’s GOP defined itself as the party of economic nationalism, the modern Republican Party is once again making trade policy a central part of its platform.
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