The Labor Force Participation Rate Is Probably Wrong
The labor force participation rate has been sliding for over year, falling from 62.6 percent in January 2025 to 61.9 percent in March 2026, according to the official figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That looks like a labor market in retreat, Americans pulling back from work, perhaps discouraged by uncertainty or softening demand.
But there is a good reason to think the decline is substantially an illusion produced by the way the statistic is constructed, and that the real story is not about workers at all. It is about how immense shifts in immigration and border policies threw…
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