Why Tarifflation Never Lived Up the Panic

Economists are finally coming to grips with the reality that President Trump’s tariff policies did not have the inflationary effects they predicted.

But the reason why may be even more challenging to the widespread assumption that tariffs cause the economy to become l ess efficient .

Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston on Wednesday finds that productivity growth accelerated in industries most heavily affected by tariffs—and that this largely offset the higher costs firms in those industries faced.

“Industries in which tariffs induced higher costs in 2025 also experienced greater…

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