Iran and the Economy: The Danger Isn’t the Shock. It’s the Duration.
Randolph Bourne said war is the health of the state. Fine. Then let’s say the other part out loud: war is a disease in the economy .
That is the real economic question hanging over the Trump administration’s war on Iran. A short, bounded conflict can be absorbed. A prolonged one doesn’t just raise the odds of a recession. It can lower the economy’s speed limit by diverting real resources, depressing investment, and extending a politics of permanent emergency. We’ve seen that movie. We even gave the middle act a name: secular stagnation.
War Costs Don’t End with the Price of Oil
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