Breakthrough Of Pete Crow-Armstrong Has Cubs On Top Of NL Central

It’s early, but the Chicago Cubs appear to be the class of a tightly bunched NL Central. Trade acquisition Kyle Tucker and free agent starting pitcher signee Colin Rea certainly deserve their share of the credit, but if you go by WAR totals – and the eye test – center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the club’s MVP in the early going.

Defensively, Crow-Armstrong is one of “those guys” – when you watch him effortlessly gallop into the gaps to rob opposing hitters, he evokes images of the Garry Maddoxes, Andruw Joneses and Kevin Kiermaiers. He doesn’t dive for balls often, because he doesn’t have to. His jumps are impeccable and he accelerates into cruising speed quickly. If all he did was play elite defense, Crow-Armstrong would still be a valuable player.

But this just in – he’s beginning to come of age with his bat. Through Wednesday’s games, he was hitting a more than respectable .266-.306-.538, with 11 doubles, 11 homers and a 133 wRC+. His combination of bat, glove and speed (13 steals in 16 attempts) has been good for 2.5 fWAR, good for 5th in the majors to date, behind only Aaron Judge (4.0), Corbin Carroll (2.8), Bobby Witt Jr. (2.6) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (2.6).

This has basically been an overnight success story – after a slow start with the bat, Crow-Armstrong had a 22-game stretch for the ages from April 7 to May 3, unfurling a .322-.337-.736 line with nine homers in 91 plate appearances. He’s cooled off a bit since then, but spurts like that don’t happen by accident. His bat now needs to at least be respected.

It was a far different story last season. He batted .237-.286-.384 with an 87 wRC+. There were quite a few blemishes when you peeled back the layers of his profile. Subpar overall average exit speed of 84.6 mph, over a full standard deviation below league average. His average grounder exit speed of 74.0 mph was over two standard deviations below, about as low as you can go, and he was an extreme grounder-puller. His 5.1% BB rate was over a standard deviation below league average, and his average range 23.9% K rate was a bit high for a player without much pop. On the plus side, his 90.9 mph fly ball and 92.6 mph liner average exit speeds were in the league average range, and his above average 39.1% fly ball rate carried an acceptable average range 3.4% pop up rate along with it. All in all, his 70 “Tru” Production+ – my batted ball-based proxy for wRC+ – was way lower than his actual mark.

This year, a few things haven’t changed – he still doesn’t walk much (4.9% BB rate), again has impacted his grounders very weakly (73.8 mph average exit speed), while not hitting a single grounder the opposite way. A few things have materially changed, however – his overall average exit speed is now in the league average range at 87.5 mph, as his average fly ball (91.5 mph) and liner (94.5 mph) exit speeds have moved much higher within the league average range. The biggest change, however, has been in fly ball frequency – his fly ball rate is now an absurd 50.0%, higher than any 2024 MLB regular. His pop up rate is now materially above league average at 5.7%, but that’s acceptable for someone who elevates so much. His average launch angle has increased from 13.8 degrees in 2024 to 20.3 degrees in 2025. His wRC+ stands at 133, a bit above his 116 “Tru” Production+.

That’s a really high average launch angle – in most cases, too high. Here is a complete list of semi-regulars who posted launch angles at that level or higher in 2024:

Daulton Varsho – 24.2

Anthony Santander – 22.8

Isaac Paredes – 22.4

Dylan Moore – 22.3

Mookie Betts – 21.4

Davis Schneider – 21.4

Cal Raleigh – 21.2

Kyle Tucker – 21.2

Rhys Hoskins – 20.8

Andy Pages – 20.8

Cedric Mullins – 20.7

Willy Adames – 20.6

Nolan Gorman – 20.3

There are some great offensive players on this list, like Betts and Tucker. They hit tons of fly balls, few pop ups, and have impeccable K/BB profiles. Raleigh hits all batted ball types pretty hard. Santander uses the entire field on the ground. A bunch of the rest of them, however, share some key similarities with Crow-Armstrong – they hit their grounders weakly and almost exclusively pull them. Adames, Hoskins, Gorman, Varsho, Schneider and Mullins all fall into that category.

Because of their defensive homes, Varsho and Mullins are the most appropriate comps among them. I see Crow-Armstrong as a better version of Varsho across the board moving forward. Comparable defense, but the young Cub is better. Varsho’s exit velocities are consistently well below average across all batted ball types, while Crow-Armstrong’s fly ball and liner-striking is trending up. One might think of Mullins as an unexciting comp for PCA, but keep in mind that the Oriole CF already has a 6.0 fWAR season on his resume. There’s no comparision between the two defensively, but on an annual basis it’s debatable as to which player will have the better offensive season. I’d bet on Mullins more often than not.

Bottom line, here is where I stand on Crow-Armstrong’s future. He is a defensive stud, and that part of his game should age well. But while there are some positive offensive trends, I simply don’t see him as a burgeoning offensive talent taking his game to a new level. A 50% fly ball rate simply is not sustainable – pitchers will attack the holes that his swing and approach are creating, and adjustments will need to be made, and some might be beyond him. Throw in his inability to hit the ball the other way on the ground, and there are significant anomalies here. I don’t see him ever hitting for average or posting high OBPs, and I feel that we may have just seen his career-best power outburst.

But that’s OK – Kevin Kiermaier accumulated 26.7 career fWAR with a comparable skillset, and I believe that PCA will do better than that. A bunch of Gold Gloves and at least a couple of 20-homer seasons makes the young Crow-Armstrong a very valuable commodity in the short, intermediate and long-term. It’s Tucker who will likely be the most valuable Cub once we hit the finish line this season, but the 23-year-old speedster in center will be an instrumental part of whatever team success the Cubs achieve.