Bolivia will turn the page on nearly two decades of disastrous socialism in Sunday’s presidential runoff election between conservative former President Jorge Quiroga and Senator Rodrigo Paz.
The election will determine who will become Bolivia’s next president for the next five years and succeed outgoing socialist President Luis Arce on November 8.
For nearly two decades, Bolivia was under the near-monolithic rule of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, first under former President Evo Morales, a wannabe dictator and fugitive of the law on pedophilia allegations, and then by his successor, outgoing socialist President Luis Arce, whose term ends in November.
Arce’s disastrous socialist policies, and a years-long power struggle between Morales and Arce, fractured MAS, which suffered a resounding defeat at the polls in August’s general elections. The party, which boasted a majority rule for almost two decades, not only lost the presidency by a landslide, but saw its once-majority grip of Congress reduced down to two seats at the Chamber of Deputies while losing all its Senate seats.
August’s presidential election concluded with Senator Paz obtaining 32 percent of the votes, followed by former President Quiroga, who obtained 26.7 percent. Since neither candidate obtained more than 50 percent of the votes, the upcoming October 19 runoff election was scheduled — marking the nation’s first runoff after it was introduced by the then-ruling socialists to the constitution in 2009. Outgoing President Arce chose not to run for reelection; as a result, MAS was represented in the August ballot by former Minister Eduardo del Castillo, who only obtained some 3 percent of the vote.
During a meeting between President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei at the White House this week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointed out that both candidates seek to establish a strong relationship with the United States and described the upcoming runoff as one of the more “promising developments” after two decades of a notoriously hostile anti-U.S. government in Bolivia.
This week, the Bolivian news channel Unitel published its last poll ahead of the runoff. The poll, conducted for the channel by polling firm Ipsos Ciesmori, found that former President Quiroga has a 44.9 percent vote intention against Senator Paz’s 36.5 percent, with 9.3 percent of respondents undecided. Senator Paz, of the centrist Christian Democratic Party, obtained a surprising victory in the first round, defying polls released at the time. Unitel nevertheless pointed out that Quiroga widened his poll advantage against Paz by up to 8.4 percent according to the last poll.
Both candidates concluded their respective campaigns on Wednesday, hours before the start of a mandatory electoral silence period ahead of Sunday’s election that prohibits all electoral propaganda in addition to other nationwide electoral-related restrictions. While both candidates have presented different campaign proposals throughout the race, both agreed on the urgent need to undo the severe economic woes and other shortcomings caused by decades of socialism in the country.
Quiroga, 65, is a politician and industrial engineer who briefly served as president between August 2001 and August 2002 to complete the remainder of the term of late President Hugo Banzer, who resigned after he was diagnosed with lung cancer. Quiroga was a staunch opponent of MAS’ two-decades-long rule in Bolivia.
The former president and his vice presidential running mate Juan Pablo Velasco closed their campaign on Wednesday in the capital city of La Paz, calling for those still undecided to support him by stressing, “This is no time to hesitate when the future of our country is at stake.”
Quiroga and Velasco reiterated to their followers that they will focus on job creation, economic reform, education, and the fight against drug trafficking. They also reportedly promised to revive key sectors such as mining and hydrocarbons, open up international markets, and transform the city of El Alto, the country’s second largest after La Paz, into a technological and industrial hub.
If elected, Quiroga has promised to undertake massive cuts to subsidies and public spending, as well as the privatization or outright closure of state companies operating at a loss, in a sweeping effort to overturn the collapse of Bolivia’s economy, reverse soaring inflation, and replenish severe fuel shortages. Quiroga has also promised to slash down Bolivia’s bloated executive expenditures, seek external financing from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), secure new trade partnerships, and reform the judiciary.
Quiroga told Reuters in August that one of his proposals calls to grant Bolivians individual ownership rights over natural resources through a mutual fund structure — including lithium, which the now-outgoing socialists vehemently sought to give away to Russia and China. Quiroga has publicly denounced the lithium contracts to Russia and China, and vowed to halt them if elected.
“The lithium will belong to each and every citizen,” Quiroga said in August. “Not to the state, not to my government, but to individuals as shareholders.”
Senator Paz, a 57-year-old economist born in exile in Spain, is the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora. He is presently serving as senator for the Tarija department since 2020 and previously served as mayor of the department’s eponymous capital city between 2015 and 2020. Paz closed his campaign in Tajira while his running mate Edmand Lara presided over a separate closure event in the province of Santa Cruz.
“We have to make a decision. On October 19, we will be deciding the fate of the nation. It is a momentous occasion. We have to leave 25 years of the past behind and build the future. That is our decision, and we have to go and talk to our neighbors about it,” Paz told his followers.
Paz, who presents himself as a centrist alternative, said that, if elected, he will promote “capitalism for all” and vowed to solve the worsening fuel shortages in the country, accusing socialist outgoing President Arce of “hiding” the fuel with the intent of generating unrest in the population. His economic plan reportedly includes tax incentives for small businesses and the self-employed, and greater fiscal autonomy for regional governments. Paz has expressed his intention to tackle Bolivia’s economic crisis with measures that do not involve severe austerity, passing economic reforms and reducing public sector waste and subsidies while maintaining social programs.
Paz reiterated to his followers on Wednesday that he will eliminate Bolivia’s customs and grant further autonomy to local provinces by distributing resources equally among central government and local authorities.
Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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