Betting Markets Predict Andrew Cuomo Will Win NYC Mayoral Primary

Topline

Betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi show former Gov. Andrew Cuomo as the favorite to win the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor over Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani as of Tuesday afternoon, reversing an earlier lead by Mamdani.

Key Facts

Key Background

Both candidates have received influential endorsements from billionaires, prominent Democrats and some of the city’s leading business figures.. Billionaire and former mayor Michael Bloomberg donated $5 million to Cuomo’s mayoral bid and an additional $3.3 million to a super PAC supporting Cuomo. On Sunday, former President Bill Clinton endorsed Cuomo, saying “he knew how to get things done” and would “stand up and protect the people of this city” from President Donald Trump, according to the New York Times. Billionaire hedge fund manager and Trump backer Bill Ackman also donated $250,000 to Cuomo in April. Other Cuomo backers include tens of thousands of dollars from billionaire and Home Depot co-founder Kenneth Langone, DoorDash and Lyft, New York Magazine reports. Earlier this month, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., endorsed Mamdani in an interview with The Times, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Mamdani in a post on X a few weeks later. Mamdani also cross-endorsed New York City Comptroller Brad Lander—third in the polls, according to The Times—who was recently arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in an immigration court building after asking officers for a judicial warrant.

What To Watch For

Despite Cuomo leading most polls in the race, Mamdani has gained traction in the last few weeks, according to poll numbers cited by Newsweek.