Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida Earn NCAA Tournament No. 1 Seeds

Duke and Auburn topped the national rankings the last two weeks, and the NCAA men’s basketball tournament selection committee saw no reason to stray.

Auburn (28-5) was given the No. 1 overall seed in the 68-team field despite losing to Tennessee in the semifinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament, based on its body of work. Auburn has 16 Quad 1 wins, three more than any other team in Division I, while playing the second most difficult schedule.

Duke (31-3), Houston (30-4) and Florida (30-4) are the other No. 1 seeds. All won their conference tournaments — Duke in the Atlantic Coast, Houston in the Big 12 and Florida in the SEC.

Duke enters the NCAA tournament with uncertainty around star freshman and likely NBA 2025 No. 1 draft choice Cooper Flagg, who suffered a left ankle injury in a quarterfinal victory over Georgia Tech and did not play against North Carolina or Louisville.

“It’s full speed ahead,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. “Our goal is for Friday (return), and it is his goal as well.”

It did not seem to matter. Duke fellow freshman Kon Knueppel had 63 points in the three ACC tournament games.

Duke earned its 15th No. 1 seed, tying Kansas for second-most overall. North Carolina, the last at-large team in the field according to the selection committee, has been a top seed 18 times.

Auburn and Michigan State are the 1-2 seeds in the South Regional, Duke and Alabama are 1-2 in the East, Houston and Tennessee are 1-2 in the Midwest and Florida and St. John’s are 1-2 in the West.

The East and the Midwest regional winners meet in the national semifinals, as do the South and West winners. The Final Four is in San Antonio, Texas, on April 5 and 7.

The SEC Makes a Statement

Auburn and Florida headlined an SEC assault — a tournament-record 14 SEC teams made the field, shattering the previous record of 11 set by the Big East in 2011, the first year field was expanded to 68 teams.

The SEC received four of the top eight seeds, and it seems fair. The SEC is ranked No. 1 in both the NCAA RPI rankings and the analytic site Kenpom. Auburn was No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for seven weeks and Tennessee was No. 1 for five. Florida and Alabama reached as high as No. 2, each blocked by Auburn.

The other SEC seeds: Kentucky (3) Texas A&M (4), Ole Miss (6), Missouri (6), Mississippi State (8), Georgia (9), Oklahoma (9), Arkansas (10), Vanderbilt (10), Texas (11). Texas has a playin game against Xavier on Wednesday

Four SEC teams have eight or fewer losses despite playing in the toughest league in Division I.N o other conference can boast that season-long success. The conference has 16 members, and 14 of them had at least 19 wins.

The Big Ten, led by No. 2 seed Michigan State, has eight teams in the field. The Big 12 has seven and the Big East has five. While Duke is seeded on the top line, there are only four ACC teams in the field. The Mountain West also had four.

No. 1 Seed Tournament History

Seeded on the top line does not guarantee success, but it is a good place to start. No. 1 seeds have won six of the last seven tournaments and nine of the last 12.

UConn, the top seed in the tournament in 2024, beat Purdue for its second consecutive championship after winning it all as a No. 4 seed in 2023. The Huskies were the eighth team to win back-to-back titles, and they were the first overall No. 1 seed to win it since Rick Pitino took Louisville to the 2023 title, although that was later vacated because of NCAA violations.

Kansas, Baylor, Virginia, Villanova and North Carolina were No. 1 seeds when they won the championship from 2017-22. The 2020 tournament was cancelled because of COVID.

No. 1 seeds have meet in the championship game three times since 2017. UConn and Purdue were No. 1 seeds a year ago. Baylor beat fellow No. 1 Gonzaga in 2021 and North Carolina beat the Zags in 2017.

What Does KenPom Say?

Analytics guru Ken Pomeroy, a former U.S. government meteorologist, revolutionized the use of statistics as a predictor of success in the NCAA tournament in the early 2000s, and his rankings are recognized as the industry standard.

Since 2001, 95.7 percent of the NCAA tournament champions have ranked in the top 22 in the KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency and 91.3 percent have ranked in the top 32 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Nine teams are in both camps entering the tournament, including all four No. 1 seeds Duke, Auburn, Houston and Florida. The others are Alabama, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Duke has the best combined marks — third on offense and fourth on defense. Houston and Florida are the only other teams in the top 10 in both. Florida ranks first in offense and 10th on defense. Houston is 10th on defense and second on offense.

Who Was Squeezed Out

North Carolina (22-13) was an often-problematic 1-12 in Quad 1 games. A team is credited with Quad 1 win for a home victory against a team ranked 1-30, a neutral site win against a team ranked 1-50 and a road win against a team ranked 1-75.

West Virginia (19-13) was 6-10 in Quad 1 games, with wins over NCAA tournament teams Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State. Indiana (19-13) was 4-13 in Quad 1 wins, including wins over Michigan State and Purdue.

The Tar Heels’ lone Quad 1 win was against UCLA, but the committee cited its 8-0 record in Quad 2 games. North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham was the chairman of the selection committee, but he recused himself when the Tar Heels were discussed.