TEXAS, USA – An F-35 fighter jet is seen as Turkey takes delivery of its first F-35 fighter jet with … More
Canada and some European countries are openly questioning the wisdom of acquiring America’s fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth jet in light of the mercurial and unorthodox policies of the Trump administration. At the same time, another US ally banned from buying F-35s sees a unique opportunity to acquire them. However, some significant obstacles may prevent President Trump from signing any F-35 deal with Turkey.
Trump’s divisive rhetoric and policies have led longstanding US allies Canada, Denmark, and Portugal to question whether the F-35 is a reliable option for their air forces.
Canada ordered 88 F-35s in 2023. Ottawa remains committed to acquiring the first 16 but is reevaluating the rest of the order. Denmark has already acquired half its order of 27 F-35s. However, alarmed and dismayed by Trump’s expressed goal of annexing Greenland, some in Copenhagen now regret that procurement. Portugal hasn’t ordered F-35s but is exploring “all the options” for replacing its 28 fourth-generation F-16s.
Conversely, NATO member Turkey appears hopeful Trump will sell it F-35s. The first Trump administration banned Turkey from the program and from buying any jets in 2019 after Ankara received S-400 Triumf air defense missile systems from Russia, ignoring repeated US and NATO objections and warnings against doing so. Turkey had planned on acquiring 100 F-35As to replace its F-16s. Ankara also lost its lucrative role as a manufacturing hub for hundreds of parts for other F-35 operators.
Turkey hasn’t put any S-400s into service. The US repeatedly insisted since 2019 that Ankara must first remove them from Turkish soil before it would consider allowing it reentry into the F-35 program. Washington fears having the F-35 and S-400 operating in the same military could expose sensitive details about the former’s crucial stealth capabilities to espionage.
“First and foremost, we have to keep in mind that there are real security concerns operating the S-400 and F-35 alongside one another,” Steven Horrell, a non-resident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told me.
“The exclusion of Turkey wasn’t just reactionary or retaliatory.”
The new chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Senator Jim Risch, reiterated Washington’s position on the Turkish S-400 on April 1.
“They’re still sitting here in the United States,” he said of the Turkish F-35s. “They’ve been paid for. But I’ve told him (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan) they’re not moving until those S-400s are gone from Turkey.”
Turkey purchased six F-35As before its 2019 suspension but didn’t receive any of them.
Horrell believes other NATO allies reconsidering the F-35 program and defense cooperation with Washington is an “outcome of the erosion of trust” brought on by Trump.
Amid this uncertainty, Turkey sees a potential opportunity. Reports indicate President Trump is indeed considering a sale. He discussed the issue in a March 16 phone call with Erdogan, who will visit the White House in April. Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, already met with his counterpart, Marco Rubio, in late March. The F-35 issue was on Fidan’s agenda.
Of course, these are still early days. Still, if other US allies reconsider the F-35, Trump may welcome Turkey’s interest.
Horrell noted that any loss of orders is bad for Lockheed Martin and the defense industry “writ large” at a time when world events necessitate the US improving its defense industrial base.
“It’s not good for the larger economy,” he said. “And in addition to international relations and goodwill, and interoperability with our allies…international sales drive down the unit price for the US Department of Defense.”
“Does that make it more likely to resume Turkey’s participation in the program?” he added. “I don’t think so, but it’s hard to have confidence in that assessment.”
Much has changed in the six years since Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program. Ankara has moved ahead with building its stealth fighter, the TF Kaan, which it hopes will enter service by the end of the decade. Turkey dubiously claims its advancements in that project made the US reconsider the F-35 ban.
“Ankara’s decision to purchase S-400 missile defense system has been one of the costliest foreign policy blunders for Turkey in recent years, and (Erdogan’s) AKP government is more than willing to return to the F-35 program,” Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer at the American University and senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, told me.
“While the conditions under which the US imposed sanctions, Ankara’s decision to purchase S-400s, remain unchanged; the global geopolitical landscape, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, have created conducive and advantageous conditions for Ankara.”
Turkish Defense Minister Yaser Guler revealed in November that Turkey is still interested in acquiring 40 F-35As. While less than half of its original plan for 100, that’s still a sizable order, especially considering Turkey ordered 40 F-16s and also seeks 40 Eurofighter Typhoons.
Reports last summer indicated that the US offered Turkey a compromise over the S-400. While Washington previously insisted Turkey remove the S-400 and all its components from the country, it has reportedly settled for placing them under US supervision in Turkey’s southeastern Incirlik airbase. However, Senator Risch’s recent statement indicates Trump might face pushback against any such compromise.
“It seems that the US still expects Ankara to take some decisive actions regarding the status of S-400s in Turkey,” Ozeren said. “So, some form of US supervision over S-400s could still be the US position.”
Even if the US and Turkey resolve the S-400 issue, Israel generally opposes Turkey getting the advanced stealth jet. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly lobbied Rubio to oppose any sale.
“As far as Israel having concerns and US-Turkey-Israel having competing and common interests, the Trump administration has certainly prioritized Israel in terms of relationships,” CEPA’s Horrell said.
Israel is concerned by Turkey’s plans to deploy air defenses and drones to a strategic airbase in central Syria and its close ties with the Islamist caretaker government in Damascus. Israel bombed three Syrian airbases Turkey scoped out for deploying forces.
The Turkish government has reportedly considered temporarily deploying its S-400s in Syria, which would address Washington’s preference for having those Russian systems taken outside of Turkey but simultaneously risk escalating tensions with Israel.
“Israel is disturbed about Turkey’s increasing influence in Syria,” Ozeren said. “The Trump administration aims to reduce tensions between Israel and Turkey, but if distrust between Netanyahu and Erdogan shifts into escalation, it may create complications for Ankara regarding F-35s.”
“Ankara is trying to navigate a difficult landscape.”
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