The 12th day of the war with Iran is coming to a close, and it’s clear that this conflict will last longer than the brief skirmish of last summer. It’s also evident that one of the three scenarios we outlined in our initial analysis is no longer relevant – the US hasn’t been able to achieve the quick collapse or surrender of Iran.

It seems the White House was counting on a blitzkrieg approach, but now it’s apparent that there was no Plan B in case of failure. The Trump administration underestimated Iran’s resolve; it didn’t believe Iran would retaliate, let alone block the Strait of Hormuz or launch attacks on the Gulf monarchies.

This leaves…

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